June 7, 2019: Weekly Forecasting Update

The differences between Clinton's NAFTA—which Trump called the worst trade deal ever—and the Trump-Lighthizer's USMCA—of which Trump is very, very, very proud indeed: GREATEST TRADE DEAL EVER!! MAKES AMERICA GREAT!!!!—are either (a) trivial, (b) parts of the Trump-nuked Trans-Pacific Partnership, or (c) changes in auto parts rules of origin that are not on the manufacturers' wish list and are not really on the United Auto Workers' wish-list either.

How did this happen? Nobody I communicate has yet managed to figure this out.

Why are Trump and Lighthizer so proud. Nobody I communicate has yet managed to figure this out.

Go figure: Jack Caporal and William Alan Reinsch: From NAFTA to USMCA: What’s New and What’s Next?: "Automotive rules of origin: USMCA will require that 75 percent of auto content be made in North America... 40-45 percent must be made by workers that earn at least $16 an hour... essentially a U.S. or Canada content requirement.... The special arbitration mechanism contained in NAFTA that allowed investors to sue NAFTA countries for discriminatory actions will be phased out between the United States and Canada, and its coverage will be significantly trimmed for investors in Mexico.... The United States was able to win access to Canada’s heavily protected dairy, egg, and poultry markets while allowing Canada to export more dairy, peanuts, and sugar products to the United States.... USMCA contains provisions on digital trade similar to those negotiated in TPP...