Interview: "NAFTA Is Just Not a Big Deal for the U.S.": Hoisted from the Archives from 2017

Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie: On the Meaning of the Monty Hall Problem: "Even today, many people seeing the puzzle for the first time find the result hard to believe. Why? What intuitive nerve is jangled?... Causeless correlation violates our common sense. Thus, the Monty Hall paradox is just like an optical illusion or a magic trick: it uses our own cognitive machinery to deceive us.... on the Meaning of the Monty Hall problem.... Our brains are not wired to do probability problems, but they are wired to do causal problems. And this causal wiring produces systematic probabilistic mistakes, like optical illusions. Because there is no causal connection between My Door and Location of Car... we find it utterly incomprehensible that there is a probabilistic association... [because] our brains are not prepared to accept causeless correlations, and we need special training—through examples like the Monty Hall paradox or the ones discussed in Chapter 3—to identify situations where they can arise...


#noted

Comments