July 12, 2019: Weekly Forecasting Update

We here in the US still have one largely-sane political party. Britain has zero: Martin Wolf: Brexit Means Goodbye to Britain as We Know It: "What is happening now is not worthy of a serious country.... The UK the world thought it knew—stable, pragmatic and respected — is gone, probably forever. Lost reputations are not readily regained.... Political leadership[:] Boris Johnson, a serial fantasist at best, is very likely to become prime minister. The leader of the opposition is Jeremy Corbyn, a man whose lifetime passion has been leftwing, anti-American politics. The country’s dominant force is Nigel Farage—a talented demagogue consumed by dislike of the EU. This is not a cast of leading characters for a country with a stable and mature democracy. Then there is the risk of a no-deal Brexit.... There are also constitutional threats.... Brexit—quite probably a no-deal Brexit—is now inevitable. An additional reason for this is the horror many Europeans now feel.... Mr Johnson described the French as 'turds'.... Brexit party members of the European Parliament turned their backs when Beethoven’s Ode to Joy was played. Why would Europeans tolerate such people if they have the choice?... What might be the future of England on its own, at open loggerheads with the EU?... Can a country dithering between Ayn Rand and Leon Trotsky truly count in the world? What justification can there be for its staying on as a permanent member of the UN Security Council? What is happening is not worthy of a serious country. The conclusion is that the UK is no longer such a country...