A Note on Coronavirus

Comment of the Day: A Note on Coronavirus https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/03/a-note-on-coronavirus.html?cid=6a00e551f0800388340240a4f0002c200d#comment-6a00e551f0800388340240a4f0002c200d: Is there anything wrong with this analysis?... Now about 22,000 people have and in the next week about 44,000 people in the U.S. will catch coronavirus. These numbers could be five times too big. These numbers could be five times too small.... Ronald Brakels: 'It's now coming up to spring in the Northern hemisphere and warmer temperatures and higher humidity will slow the spread of the virus. People should also be taking precautions since they are forewarned, unlike the inhabitants of Wuhan. But yeah, there's plenty of potential for large scale outbreaks in the US, so your back of the envelope estimate may not be too far off. I'm more optimistic about the rate of spread, it's going to be 29 degrees Celsius in Houston on Wednesday, but what do I know?...' Mark Field: 'According to Johns Hopkins, the median time until death was about 33 days.... As for the doubling rate, 2 weeks ago Italy had 9 cases. Now it has 5800. Since Trump is deliberately suppressing the ability to diagnose cases, we have to estimate as the good prof has done here.... Ronald Brakels: 'Thinking about it, if 22,000 people have COVID-19 new centers of infection should be becoming apparent. If 11,000 people currently have it and have passed through the incubation period and developed symptoms there should be around 2,000+ severe cases coming to the attention of medical professionals. While this is nothing compared to the 490,000 US hospitalizations due to the flu last year, I presume there would be enough concentration in new centers of infection for suspicions to be raised. If there are normally 2,000 flu hospitalizations a day in the US at this time of year, an extra 200 or so a day concentrated in a few clusters should ring alarm bells. Unless of course it's more difficult to detect the signal than I think, or the United States is particularly bad at this sort of thing despite having months of warning.... I suspect the rate of doubling is slower than in Brad's back of the envelope calculation. This is not surprising, people have changed their behavior and the US is less crowded than China, South Korea, or Italy. Also, the United States may have been lucky with very few clusters forming in the wild. But in about a week we should be able to say if the United States has been fortunate or unfortunate...


#commentoftheday #coronavirus #2020-03-08

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