Grasping Reality on TypePad, by Brad DeLong

Things Accomplished:

• Coronavirus Daily Read List https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/03/coronavirus-daily-read-list.html: NEJM Group: Updates on the Covid-19 Pandemic.... Worldometer: Coronavirus Update.... Financial Times: Coronavirus Tracked.... CDPH: News Releases 2020.... Josh Marshall: Epidemic Science & Health Twitter List...

• Cases and Deaths from Coronavirus Doubling Every Three Days Is Very Bad News Indeed https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/03/cases-and-deaths-from-coronavirus-doubling-every-three-days-is-very-bad-news-indeed.html: I confess I am positively unmanned by the every-three-days doubling of reported cases and deaths here in the United States. I had thought that we would see true cases doubling every seven days. And back when reported cases started doubling every three days, I was encouraged, because I thought it meant that we were catching up on testing, and so getting closer to detecting the bulk of the symptomatic cases. But now it looks like that was wrong.... That means that the Trump administration has only 40% as much time to get its ass in gear as I thought it did. And that means the chances it will are very very low indeed...

• Yet Another Rant on Coronavirus & Trump https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/03/yet-another-rant-on-coronavirus-trump.html: Could "reopening America for business" on Easter backfire? Oh, yes it could. Oh, it definitely could backfire: BIGTIME.... From May 1 to June 15 hospitals will have been overwhelmed. The likely death rate will have been not 1% but 6%. 5 million additional Americans will have died. In return we will have produced an extra $1 trillion of stuff. That's a tradeoff of $200K per life, which is not a good tradeoff to aim at making. And, while it could be better, it could be much worse...

Must-Reads:

• https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/03/rad-geek-_the-infovores-dilemma_-in-circumstances-that-lead-to-a-high-risk-of-groupthink-and-overreach-its-a-r.html: The first important question about life in a time of pandemic is: where do you get your information to keep from being overwhelmed and misinformed? Misinformation can and does come from almost everywhere. When Deborah Brix in the White House briefing room says that right now there is no ventilator shortage, many of the reporters in front of her and the watchers on the TV think: “and we can easily produce enough ventilators and distribute them in a timely fashion that there will not be”. That second is an unwarranted inference—something that her political masters want the audience to believe, but that she almost surely does not believe. We put to one side the question: how does she expect to live with herself? The question for us is: how do we parse and understand the flow? Here Rad Geek has some very useful advice: Rad Geek: The Infovore’s Dilemma https://radgeek.com/gt/2020/03/23/the-infovores-dilemma/: 'In circumstances that lead to a high risk of groupthink and overreach, it’s a reason to explicitly employ evidential markers when reporting claims.... In a high info-garbage environment, it is often worthwhile to deliberately limit, compartmentalize or substitute the consumption of certain kinds of low-quality or risky information...
• https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/03/are-all-right-wing-politicians-and-writers-save-mitt-romney-confirmed-atheists-certain-that-this-is-all-here-is-so-you-ha.html: Not to dunk on atheists—they are as moral as the next (wo)man, and much less likely to do evil things in a belief that some deity commands them. But if one lacks charity and empathy, fear of the LORD might substitute. That, at least, has been the argument for religion as a cement of social order down the ages. So now I have to ask: are all right-wing politicians and writers (save Mitt Romney) confirmed atheists? Certain that this is all here is, so you have to grab all the goodies you can with both hands right now? Is that any way to live?: Kevin Drum: Trump Says Jump; Wingers Ask How High https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/trump-says-jump-wingers-ask-how-high/: 'Modern conservative politics is remarkable. Two days ago it felt like everyone was totally on board with school closings and quarantines and social distancing. It was the new reality. Then Donald Trump announced that he didn’t really believe the experts after all and wanted to re-open the economy. Within 24 hours I swear that practically every conservative in the country was suddenly in agreement—or seriously considering it at the very least. All Trump had to do was open his mouth to produce a right-wing U-turn so violent you could almost hear the necks snapping. How has Trump done this?...
• https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/03/claudia-sahm-joel-slemrod-and-matthew-shapiro-have-the-baton-on-the-effects-of-direct-payments-to-people-in-cushioning-the.html: Claudia Sahm, Joel Slemrod, and Matthew Shapiro have the baton on the effects of direct payments to people in cushioning the fall in aggregate demand during a recession. There are good reasons to fear that this supply shock induced recession will be different. But at the moment it is the best we got...
• https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/03/jim-stocks-blog.html: In a good world, Jim Stock would already be back in the Eisenhower old executive office building chairing the Council of Economic Advisors during this crisis. He is vastly more thoughtful, more confident, and more up to speed on the issues and the trade-offs that we face, economically, during this public health crisis. However, we are not in a good world. We are in a very bad one. Already, the United States his response to the coronavirus is the worst in the world. And it only looks as though the gap between us and other countries is going to grow over the next months: Jim Stock: Coronavirus: Data Gaps and the Policy Response https://www.jimstock.org/2020/03/coronavirus-data-gaps-and-policy.html...
• https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/03/let-me-endorse-this-as-a-thoughtful-assessment-of-how-important-it-is-to-keep-the-economy-from-sending-anybody-a-you-are-ban.html: Let me endorse this as a thoughtful assessment of how important it is to keep the economy from sending anybody a "you are bankrupt: shut down" signal by the economy in this public health crisis. Instead, every business and every workers should be being sent a "you are, at most, on pause: be ready to resume" signal by the economy. How to make sure that signal is sent requires fiscal stimulus an order of magnitude greater than the $2.2 trillion currently in the headlines. For one thing, it requires tolerance of inflation, as prices of medical equipment and necessities rise and as social distancing temporarily reduces productivity elsewhere in the economy: Peter R. Orszag: Social Distancing Makes Sense Only With Huge Fiscal Stimulus https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-22/social-distancing-makes-sense-only-with-huge-fiscal-stimulus...
• https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/03/this-is-by-a-substantial-margin-the-best-thing-i-have-seen-on-the-coronavirus-and-where-we-are-with-respect-to-it-my-confid.html: 'This is by a substantial margin the best thing I have seen on the coronavirus, and where we are with respect to it. My confidence that the Trump administration and the Republican senatorial majority are up to the task of organizing this is too low to measure: Richard Danzig and Marc Lipsitch: Prepare Now for the Long War Against Coronavirus https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-20/prepare-now-for-the-long-war-against-coronavirus: 'It’s essential to clearly envision the problems we’ll face over the next 12 to 18 months and mobilize to respond right away...
• https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/03/marc-lipsitch-_seasonality-of-sars-cov-2-will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather_-even-seasonal-infectio.html: As near as I can see, the Trump administration's coronavirus strategy—if it can be said to have a strategy at all—is to dither, doing the very minimum that the public health experts drive it to do well hoping that coronavirus will, like the standard flu, meltaway as the northern hemisphere warms up in the spring. This is a very low odds existential Bette to be making. If anyone has any insight into why they are making it, I would appreciate being dropped a line. Here we have somebody who knows what he is talking about explaining why this is the most draw-to-an-inside-straightish draw to an inside straight: Marc Lipsitch: Seasonality of SARS-CoV-2: Will COVID-19 Go Away on Its Own in Warmer Weather? https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/: 'Even seasonal infections can happen “out of season” when they are new. New viruses have a temporary but important advantage—few or no individuals in the population are immune to them.  Old viruses, which have been in the population for longer, operate on a thinner margin...

#dailynotes #noted #weblogs #2020-03-27