This makes considerable sense: U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI) Team: Over 37 Million Jobs Vulnerable To Short-Term Covid-19 Related Layoffs: 'Our finding [is] that that, amidst the COVID-19 crisis, over 37 million U.S. jobs may be vulnerable to potential layoffs in the short term. These are mostly front-line, customer-facing jobs that are predominantly low-wage/low-hours positions, but there are several higher quality job sectors included—such as air transportation—that are seeing shutdowns due to industry-specific, as opposed to generalized, consumer inactivity. These losses could be temporary if aid from the federal government is sufficient to "reset" the status quo ante and offset missed household payments for food, shelter and medical, and small/medium sized businesses’ rent, debt service and other carrying costs during the shutdown—so as to ensure their survival. If, on the other hand, the crisis is allowed to boil over into a full-on, lasting recession, it will be far more severe. Arguably worse than the Great Recession because of the depth of the demand shock. During the Great Recession, unemployment spiked to 10%, but those who remained employed continued consumption, albeit at a subdued rate. The present is a distinctly different situation: A potential unemployment spike to as much as the high teens, accompanied by an actual restriction on consumption caused by limited mobility of consumers. Akin to a severe economic slump and infrastructure-damaging hurricane/blizzard occurring at the same time....


#noted #2020-03-20

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