Grasping Reality on TypePad, by Brad DeLong

Note to Self: If the mortality rate on true cases is 1% and if it takes two weeks from testing to death then, as the U.S. tested and confirmed cases in March, the U.S. 4/5 of the way through March was catching only one in fifteen cases:

https://delong.typepad.com/files/coronavirus-extrapolations.pdf

That would suggest that currently something like 10 million people in America have or had the disease, and that some 500,000 a day are getting it.

If the share of deaths among those whom the virus brushes past close enough that they develop at least temporary immunity—which is the number we really wish we knew—is not 1% but 0.3%, than those csae numbers are 30 million, and 1.5 million a day...