The Hoover Institute's Richard Epstein Is an Intellectual Fraudster, Pure and Simple...
A good liar needs to have a good memory. Richard Epstein has a bad memory. Richard Epstein is a bad liar https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnPMacke/status/1251716101819584513.
On Mar 16 he forecast https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavirus-pandemic that the U.S. would see about 500 deaths from coronavirus.
He then on Mar 23 wrote https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavirus-overreaction that that 500 estimate was low, and that he now had a revised forecast of 2,500.
Today the March 16 article—still datestamped March 16—has been silently changed. Why? To make it appear that on Mar 16 he forecast not 500, and not 2500, but 5000 U.S. deaths.
Today the Mar 16 article contains a "Correction & Addendum as of March 24"—the datestamp Mar 24 of which is false—that states that he had intended on Mar 16 to forecast 50,000 U.S. deaths: "my original erroneous estimate of 5,000 dead in the US is a number ten times smaller than I intended to state..."
The Mar 24 datestamp is false because the "Correction & Addendum as of March 24" has itself been silently revised: the "Correction & Addendum as of March 24" originally read: "That estimate is ten times greater than the 500 number I erroneously put in the initial draft of the essay...
Could this be funnier?
Confused? Epstein is now claiming that he originally intended on Mar 16 to forecast 50,000 U.S. dead but "erroneously" put 5,000 in his "initial draft".
In actual fact, his original Mar 16 forecast was 500.
In actual fact, on Mar 23 Epstein stated that his initial calculations had been in error, and that a better forecast was "2000-2500".
In actual fact, on Mar 24, Epstein added his "Correction & Addendum" raising his better forecast to 5,000, and acknowledging that that 5,000 forecast was a tenfold increase over his initial 500 forecast.
In actual fact, sometime between Mar 24 and today, Apr 21, Epstein silently revised his Mar 16 article—keeping the Mar 16 datestamp—so that it falsely appears that its forecast was not 500 but 5000.
In actual fact, sometime between Mar 24 and today, Apr 21, Epstein silently revised his Mar 24 "Correction & Addendum" to his Mar 16 article so that it now falsely claims that his original estimate was not 500 but 5000.
In actual fact, sometime between Mar 24 and today, Apr 21, Epstein silently revised his Mar 24 "Correction & Addendum" to his Mar 16 article to add the—previously never made, and so I conclude entirely false—claim that he on Mar 16 had "intended" to forecast 50,000 U.S. deaths from coronavirus.
I am with Paul Campos here: This is intellectual fraud, pure and simple.
Richard Epstein (2020-03-23): Coronavirus Overreaction https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavirus-overreaction https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-epstein-coronavirus-2020-03-23.pdf: 'In my column last week, I predicted that the world would eventually see about 50,000 deaths from the novel coronavirus, and the United States about 500...
Richard Epstein (2020-03-23): Coronavirus Overreaction https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavirus-overreaction https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-epstein-coronavirus-2020-03-23.pdf: 'The total US deaths should be about 4 to 5 percent of that [world] total [of 50,000], or about 2,000–2,500 deaths. The current numbers are getting larger, so it is possible both figures will move up in a rough proportion from even that revised estimate...
Richard Epstein (2020-03-16): Coronavirus Perspective https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavirus-pandemic: 'It seems more probable than not that the total number of cases world-wide will peak out at well under 1 million, with the total number of deaths at under 50,000. In the United States, the current 67 deaths should reach about 5000 (or ten percent of my estimated world total, which may also turn out to be low). [Correction & Addendum as of March 24, 2020: My original erroneous estimate of 5,000 dead in the US is a number ten times smaller than I intended to state, and it too could prove somewhat optimistic...
Richard Epstein (2020-03-16): Coronavirus Perspective: '[Correction & Addendum, added March 24,2020: That estimate is ten times greater than the 500 number I erroneously put in the initial draft of the essay... https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EV79I9RXQAAkVtW?format=png&name=medium
Paul Campos: Richard Epstein Has Yet More to Say About Our Little Pandemic https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/04/richard-epstein-has-yet-more-to-say-about-our-pandemic: 'UPDATE: This is academic fraud [by Richard Epstein], straight up: ,https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnPMacke/status/1251716101819584513> Summary: Epstein took down the original link to his March 16th piece that predicted 500 deaths, and replaced it with a link to an edited piece that claimed “My original erroneous estimate of 5,000 dead in the US is a number ten times smaller than I intended to state…” The original version of this “correction” read: “That estimate is ten times greater than the 500 number I erroneously put in the initial draft of the essay.” Now he’s fraudulently altering his original text to make it seem as if his original “gaffe,” as he’s calling it, was to predict 5,000 deaths, because he intended to predict 50,000. He’s trying to make the original version look like a typo, AND he’s removing a zero from the original prediction. Note that SEVEN DAYS AFTER the March 16th column he had upped his prediction to 2000-2500 deaths. He’s trying to produce the Internet equivalent of a forged document to muddle the record. h/t Dilan Esper...
#coronavirus #highlighted #lyingliarslie #orangehairedbaboons #2020-04-21
