Grasping Reality on TypePad, by Brad DeLong

2020-07-14:

And no, it is not that our confirmed case numbers are rising because we are testing more: tests-per-confirmed-case are dropping fast:

It remains the case that, due to the Trump administration's incompetence, our only halfway-decent metric is deaths—and that lags a month behind the current progress of the disease:

2020-06-28: Will the United States's President Trump or Brazil's President Bolsonaro wind up killing more people because of his incompetence in handling the 'rona? Stay tuned:

And the United States is certainly doing the worst in the global north:

And no, it is not that our confirmed case numbers are rising because we are testing more: tests-per-confirmed-case are dropping fast:

It remains the case that, due to the Trump administration's incompetence, our only halfway-decent metric is deaths—and that lags a month behind the current progress of the disease:

https://delong.typepad.com/files/coronavirus-extrapolations.pdf

But one thing is clear: no, we no longer have the virus plateaued...

2020-05-04: Andy Slavitt ‘COVID-19 seems to be a uniquely tough American foe https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1257477774220066827. The rest of the world is figuring it out. The Czech Republic did it with masks. China with isolation. Germany with testing. Hong Kong with experience. New Zealand with alerts. Greece with discipline. The cost of these lessons is already too high. But it is not beyond our power to change it. But I’m afraid [that] to change this, we do have to first face it…

Nearly all other countries have the virus in retreat:

2020-06-12: Why am I not surprised that the most incompetent, ignorant, and undisciplined president imaginable backed up by the worst and most corrupt political party in the world produces one of the worst responses to coronavirus in the world?

Above, it looks like Wave 2 is coming, with Arizona, South Carolina, Florida, and Georgia—where case numbers are being suppressed—leading the way. Below, it looks from my extrapolations (which I desperately hope are wrong and pessimistic) that our nine-week period of R[t] < 1 has come to an end, nationwide cases are rising again, and will in all likelihood we will see deaths start rising in two weeks more.

We have the virus plateaued—falling cases in Greater New York, rising cases elsewhere, and we are about to step down social distancing in much of "elsewhere"...

#coronavirus #highlighted #orangehairedbaboons #publichealth #2020-05-04

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