Roser: Is the World Making Progress Against the Pandemic?—Noted
I confess that I really wish that Max Roser & company would do more than just color-code the confirmed case data by frequency of testing. What we really want are estimates of true ‘rona plague cases, inferred from testing frequencies and confirmed cases. My own guess—but I am not an epidemiologist https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/05/worst-coronavirus-response-in-the-world-by-the-most-incompetent-ignorant-and-undisciplined-president-imaginable-donald-tru.html—is that the United States is still missing two out of three new ‘rona cases, and that our true nationwide case replication rate R here in the United States, after shrinking to 0.85 per week in mid-May, is now back up at 1.00 and is about to start growing again, as Georgia, Florida, Arizona, Texas, and southern California shift from being hot spots to being inferno spots.
It is, I must say, one hell of a time to have a big revival-style campaign event in Arizona.
But other people could do a better job at guessing at the answers to these questions than I can, and I wish they would:
Max Roser & al.: Is the World Making Progress Against the Pandemic? We Built the Chart to Answer This Question https://ourworldindata.org/epi-curve-covid-19: ‘Data on the number of confirmed cases only becomes meaningful when it can be interpreted in light of how much a country tests. This is what the chart shows.... Trajectories show the daily number of cases. The goal is for every line to bend towards zero. And line color gives an indication of the quality of a country’s data at each point in time. If a country finds a case for every few tests they perform the line is shown in shades of red. Here it is likely that the unknown number of cases is high.... The darker shades of blue mean that a country does many tests for each case it finds.... The goal is that a country tests widely in relation to its outbreak, shown by the line color turning into dark shades of blue.... Two very different groups of countries.... Slovakia, Thailand, New Zealand, South Korea, and Germany... monitored the outbreak well... were able to bend the curve and bring down the number of confirmed cases.... These are not the only countries, that achieved this; you can add for example Austria, Iceland, Slovenia, Tunisia... Latvia... similar trajectories.... Brazil, Mexico, the United States, UK, Sweden, India, Pakistan, South Africa, and Nigeria... test little... report unfortunately still very high daily case counts… #coronavirus #noted #publichealth #2020-06-25
