Worthy Reads from July 4, 2019
Worthy Reads from Equitable Growth:
Heather Boushey: How Can We Better Measure Growth...
The Equitable Growth twitter account informs me that Oregon is leading not just on YIMBYism but also on FAML: Equitable Growth: "Congratulation to Oregon for passing one of the most comprehensive paid family and medical leave policies in the nation. To learn more about the implications of paid family leave on American families and employers, check out our factsheet: https://t.co/oXQV4DiY8M?amp=1...
Walking the walk: Heather Boushey: "We believe that having a staff union at Equitable Growth will make us a stronger organization and look forward to working with union members...
While there has been a lot of noise about the changing short-run economic outlook over the past year, in actuality very little has changed: the U.S. economy continues to grow slightly above its trend rate of 2% per year or so, with no outbreak of inflation, and with a roughly one-in-five chance of seeing a recession begin within the year: June 28, 2019: Weekly Forecasting Update: It is still the case that: [1] he Trump-McConnell-Ryan tax cut has been a complete failure at boosting the American economy through increased investment in America.... [2] U.S. potential economic growth continues to be around 2%/year. [3] There are still no signs the U.S. has entered that phase of the recovery in which inflation is accelerating...
Worthy Reads from Elsewhere:
I do not see this as a "silver lining" at all. To say that there are now trends for factories to locate close to demand is not an alternative source of regional comparative advantage and disadvantage but rather an amplifier of other sources. Ultimately, customers are located in regions that have regional exports. A region that does not have large regional exports—and the prospect of growing more—will not be attractive to firms making long-run decisions and attempting to locate where there customers will be. It is likely to be a very uphill climb: Rana Foroohar: Silver Lining for Labour Markets: "Globalisation... bottom of... reasons that labour’s share of national income has declined.... The biggest reason... supercycles in areas... which favour capital over labour.... Automation and the speeding up of capital substitution because of technological shifts have hurt traditional industrial areas disproportionately.... A mere 25 cities and regions could account for 60 per cent of US job growth by 2030.... Tech hubs will benefit, of course, as will commodity-rich areas and tourism centres catering to the wealthy. But so will... regions... capitalis[ing] on a silver lining... being closer to customer demand.... Companies such as Nike and Adidas have built highly automated 'speed-factories'... to roll out the latest styles faster and more cheaply...
A very, very heartening success in the war on NIMBYism. Now we get to see whether local bureaucracies resist. And we get to see whether other states with NIMBYist regions can assemble the same political coalition: Michael Andersen: "Oregon just voted to legalize fourplexes in all areas of every large city, duplexes on almost every urban lot. A historic achievement, first bill of its kind in US history.... before I drink it's extremely important to thank @TinaKotek, its architect & champion; @ShemiaFagan, who carried it across the floor; @Voices4ORHomes, builders of a mighty anti-displacement toolbox; @1000oregon, visionary anti-sprawl/pro-housing warriors; & many others. Democratic caucus: 14 Y, 4 N. Republican caucus: 3 Y, 5 N. Housing is popular...
Tremendously disturbing. The question in the marketplace should aways be "is your money good?" not "I don't like your face". The second is tremendously destructive to human liberty: Kevin Drum: A Third of Republicans Think It’s OK to Refuse Service to Muslims: "A new PRRI survey.... Conservatives think business owners should be free to refuse service to gay people if their refusal is based on religious belief. But apparently large numbers of them also think it’s fine to refuse service to Muslims, Jews, and African Americans.... 18 percent think it’s OK to discriminate against blacks compared to 47 percent who think it’s OK to discriminate against gay people. Jews and Muslims and atheists are in the middle.... I wonder how seriously to take this?...
I do not understand this alternative. Tapping into global markets is great—if you have something to sell. But if low-wage labor is no longer a powerful source of potential comparative advantage, what then do poor countries have to sell that could jump-start development? There is labor, there is capital, there is expertise, there is your natural resource base. Poor counties are poor because they lack capital and expertise. And as for natural resources—well, "resource curse" is a phrase often heard for good reasons: Michael Spence: The “Digital Revolution” of Wellbeing: "In the early stages of development... labor-intensive process-oriented manufacturing and assembly has played an indispensable role.... Advances in robotics and automation are now eroding the developing world’s traditional source of comparative advantage.... E-commerce platforms... the real prize is the global marketplace. Only if digital platforms could be extended to tap into global demand would they suggest an alternative growth model (provided that tariffs and regulatory barriers do not get in the way)...
I concur with Noah Smith's judgment here. Elizabeth Warren's policy shop is highly professional, and that she already has such a highly professional policy shop is a strong recon to think she would make a good president: Noah Smith: Elizabeth Warren Channels the Real New Deal: "Just since the start of this year, Warren has released no fewer than 19 detailed economic policy proposals... neither the cautious, technocratic tweaks that tend to emerge from centrist think tanks, nor the bold but vague promises often issued by the socialist left.... They represent a coherent, unified program for transforming the U.S. economy.... By thinking big, combining intelligence with ambition, and being willing to engage both the public and private sectors, Warren has set herself up to be the closest thing modern American politics has to a successor to FDR...
That Martin Feldstein was certain that we could determine and then agree on what good public policies were was always heartening, and raised my confidence we could make a better world: Larry Summers: The Economist Who Helped Me Find My Calling: "Working for [Feldstein], I saw what I had not seen in the classroom: that rigorous and close statistical analysis... can provide better answers to economic questions, and possibly better lives.... Marty was a magnet for talent.... Marty cared about people’s economic analysis, not their political affiliation. That is why he mentored stars like Jeffrey Sachs and Raj Chetty, who disagreed with him on many questions...
It is tremendously disturbing that so many of today' Republican office holders and ideologues have no sense of when markets do and do not work, or how to structure markets so that they can work: Jerry Taylor: One (and Only One) Cheer for the Republican “Innovation” Answer to Climate Change: "Restless Republicans are (rightly) uncomfortable about allowing the planet to burn while their party doggedly maintains that nothing is happening. Alas, they’re also uncomfortable about imposing discernible economic costs on anyone, so technological 'innovation' via subsidies for favored low-carbon industries and increases in federal energy R&D has thus far been their policy response of choice.... But the Republican innovation agenda alone is not, in and of itself, a serious policy proposal. It is, perhaps, the prelude to a serious policy proposal.... If Republican rebels are prepared to accept the consensus within the climate science community, they need to... act even more aggressively... deploy zero-carbon energy technology right now.... Simon’s narrative about resource renewal only plays out when we’re dealing with tradable commodities in a free market economy where price signals are accurate and can do their job. And we don’t have those conditions when it comes to the atmosphere...
It is astonishing that this Brexit farce continues. It would only take 10 Tory MPs to call a halt to it: Bloomberg: U.K. Tory Prime Minister Candidates Unprepared for Brexit Reality: "Irresponsible tax and spending promises predominated. Implausible approaches to Brexit were aired, along with nonchalant talk of defaulting on public debts. Cocaine proved unexpectedly salient.... A chaotic no-deal exit on Halloween. Alarmingly, most of the candidates have suggested that they’d be okay with that last option... imposing the most damaging version of a policy that about half the country already despises, and one that Parliament has already explicitly rejected.... If the Tory candidates recognize the urgency of confronting hard truths, they’re showing few signs of it...
.#noted #weblogs #2019-07-04