#noted Feed

Nobody ever showed me credible numbers stating that New York's proposed subsidies to Amazon were a good deal for the people of New York, let alone for the country as a whole. That makes me strongly suspect that credible numbers cannot be calculated. Unless a recession hits at the right (or rather wrong) moment, the people who would have worked in New York at Amazon HQ2 will work elsewhere, and the state economy as a whole is likely to be healthier:

Nathan Jensen: Economic Development Public Policy Lessons Abound in New York’s Amazon HQ2 Debacle: "Most of these incentives are bad public policy. Virginia’s HQ2 bid was more public focused. It includes future payments based on a formula involving new, high-paying jobs as well as and other public subsidies, but it also includes a promise of infrastructure and education investments that would serve not only Amazon but also the entire community. The subsidies continue to face opposition. New York’s bid, in contrast, was designed primarily to put more money into the pockets of Amazon...

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David Leonhardt: Trump’s Trade Grade: "It’s a neat microcosm of President Trump’s economic policy: He picks a yardstick to measure the American economy—the trade deficit—that’s mostly meaningless. He spends years criticizing it as too high and promising to reduce it. And under his administration, it surges.... 'He set out to fix a non-problem (a trade deficit) and created real ones including international conflict, higher consumer prices and gross inefficiency in our economy', the Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin writes...

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John Harwood: @JohnJHarwood: "Trump/GOP promised lasting 3+% growth from self-financing tax-cuts. Mainstream economists predicted brief deficit-fueled growth burst. The record so far: 2018 Q2 4.2%, 2018 Q3 3.4%, 2018 Q4 2.6%, deficit way up. Fed forecasts: 2019 2.3%, 2020 2.0%, 2021 1.8%...

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Guy bar-Oz et al.: Ancient Trash Mounds Unravel Urban Collapse a Century Before he End of Byzantine Hegemony in the Southern Levant | PNAS: "The Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) was recently identified... proposed as a major cause for pandemic and extensive societal upheavals in the sixth–seventh centuries.... Archaeological evidence for the magnitude of societal response to this event is sparse.... This study uses ancient trash mounds... to establish the terminal date of organized trash collection and high-level municipal functioning on a city-wide scale...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (April 5, 2019)

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  1. Charlotte Edwardes: Sam Gyimah: I’m Still a Tory—It’s the Party I Joined That’s Changed: "He’s faced repeated deselections and a no-confidence vote—but Sam Gyimah won’t give up. Here, the MP talks about being ‘thrown to the wolves’ and how toxic Brexiteer infighting is threatening to tear the Conservatives apart...

  2. Brooke Masters: Want to Write a Piece for the Financial Times Opinion Page?: "Think about our readers.... Write what you know.... Write clearly and accessibly.... Use specific examples.... Be pithy and sharp...

  3. Paige Harden: "Pietro is being generous, when in fact I’m just trying to articulate something that’s been percolating for awhile... Let’s take genetics AND egalitarianism seriously. Begin there, and see where it takes us...

  4. Bart Demandt: China Car Sales Analysis January & February 2019: "The market for domestic passenger car sales in China continues its decline in 2019 with 8 consecutive months of declines from July 2018 to February 2019. With two months of double digit declines in January (-16,7%) and February (-17,6%), the market doesn’t seem able to recover soon...

  5. FOLD: What is FOLD?

  6. Read Irin Carmon at New York Magazine on how Baron, Wallsten, and Barr handled the pieces of her story about CBS honcho Jeff Fager's internal defense of Charlie Rose http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/what-was-the-washington-post-afraid-of.html. After reading it, if you read it as I read it, you will conclude that newspaper managers as easily bullied as Baron, Wallsten, and Barr are not useful in their current. I wrote so to Jeff Bezos. If you wind up agreeing with me, I urge you to write Bezos as well...

  7. Steve Moore: “I’m kind of new to this game, frankly, so I’m going to be on a steep learning curve myself about how the Fed operates...

  8. James LaPorta: Top Marine General Let Emails Leak Amid Border Funding Fight so Service Families Would Not Be Forgotten: Sources: "When asked why Neller would allow internal memorandums to leak to press outlets, one Defense Department source expressed bluntly, 'Because he didn’t want the Marines and families at Camp Lejeune [in North Carolina] to get f---ed.' Six months after Hurricane Florence first made landfall at Wrightsville Beach in North Carolina, roughly an hour southwest of Camp Lejeune, the base is still waiting on funding for repairs...

  9. Friedrich A. von Hayek: Hayek the Ethnic Bigot and the Perils of the Ad Hominem Fallacy: "I have no racial prejudices in general—but there were certain types, and conspicuous among them the Near Eastern populations, which I still dislike because they are fundamentally dishonest... a type which, in my childhood in Austria, was described as Levantine, typical of the people of the eastern Mediterranean.... I have a profound dislike for the typical Indian students at the London School of Economics, which I admit are all one type—Bengali moneylender sons. They are to me a detestable type, I admit, but not with any racial feeling. I have found a little of the same amongst the Egyptians—basically a lack of honesty in them...

  10. Matthew Buckley: "Back when America wasn’t a fascist ethnostate, this statement alone would have been grounds for impeachment. But that was when we were a nation of laws: Aaron Rupar: TRUMP threatens to close border with Mexico as soon as this weekend, then rants about immigration during Oval Office meeting with NATO secretary general: "What we have to do is Congress has to meet quickly & make a deal... to be honest with you, we have to get rid of judges...

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Pharmaceutical pricing appears to be one of the very few areas in which an equitable growth agenda can be advanced at the federal level over the next two years: CPPC: How Rebate Walls Block Access to Affordable Drugs: "The company that manufacturers the older drug can "bundle" its rebates for all those prescriptions and use it as a weapon. Some drug companies are using the large group of rebates, also known as a 'rebate wall', as a negotiating tactic-they demand that health plans not favor or exclude newer medicines from their formularies, even if the newer medicines lead to better outcomes. One example of this problem are when Johnson & Johnson used rebate walls to protect its drug Remicade and stifle competition from Pfizer's Inflectra, a lower cost biosimilar drug.... How can this be fixed? One possible solution: the Trump administration has announced a proposed rebate rule that eliminate the anti-kickback safe harbor that is currently applied to rebates. Another idea would be indication-based pricing, which is requiring prices and rebates to be negotiated for each drug and not bundled together. And as we mentioned earlier, the Federal Trade Commission could and should forbid drug manufacturers from erecting rebate walls...

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This Federal Reserve interest-raising cycle: not just an ex-post but an ex-ante mistake: Adam Ozimek and Michael Ferlez: The Fed’s Mistake: "WWhen the Fed faces similar uncertainty in the future, looks back at the deci- sion to start raising rates in 2015, and judges that the path of monetary policy turned out to be optimal, such an assessment will offer support for raising rates. If instead the Fed looks back and sees that the path was sub-optimal, such an assessment will offer a cautionary tale.... The current Fed estimate of the long-run unemployment rate implies that in December 2015 the gap was 0.55 percentage point instead of 0.1.... The assumption that the LRU will continue to be revised downward is consistent with the pattern over the past few years, and is further supported by recent statements from Powell that indicate a strong possibility that LRU will continue to fall. As the best estimates of the long-run unemployment rate fall, the magnitude of the Fed’s ex ante error will continue to grow.... the Fed made a numerically significant error in underestimating the amount of labor market slack...

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George Magnus: China Leadership Monitor: "China’s TFP surged in the 1980s following the agricultural and ownership reforms, in the 1990s following the state enterprise reforms and the creation of a modern housing market, and in the 2000s as China prepared for and was then able to exploit WTO membership.... China’s one-party system deservedly has won plaudits when it has been most ambitious with regard to economic reforms and experimentation with market mechanisms. But this is not the case, for example, before the 1980s and again since 2012, when reforms were suppressed or stifled and inputs were boosted, but without any improvements...

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Migration—temporary and permanent—is turning out to be one of the magic bullets for global economic growth: Ricardo Hausmann (2013): The Tacit-Knowledge Economy: "Know how resides in brains, and emerging and developing countries should focus on attracting them, instead of erecting barriers to skilled immigration. Because knowledge moves when people do, they should tap into their diasporas, attract foreign direct investment in new areas, and acquire foreign firms if possible.... Recent research at Harvard University’s Center for International Development (CID) suggests that tacit knowledge flows through amazingly slow and narrow channels. The productivity of Nuevo León, Mexico, is higher than in South Korea, but that of Guerrero, another Mexican state, resembles levels in Honduras. Moving knowledge across Mexican states has been difficult and slow. It is easier to move brains than it is to move tacit knowledge into brains, and not only in Mexico. For example, as the CID’s Frank Neffke has shown, when new industries are launched in German and Swedish cities, it is mostly because entrepreneurs and firms from other cities move in, bringing with them skilled workers with relevant industry experience.... Knowledge moves when people do...

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Ken Rogoff has picked up the goal posts and moved them five miles down the field! Recall his (and Carmen Reinhart's) austerity line from 2011:

Too Much Debt Means the Economy Can’t Grow: "Current debt trajectories are a risk to long-term growth and stability.... [Debt] burdens above 90 percent are associated with 1 percent lower median growth..."

But it turns out "austerity" does not mean "move heaven and earth to keep debt-to-annual GDP less than 90%, no matter how high current unemployment". Instead, all "austerity" means is:

Kenneth Rogoff: The Austerity Chronicles: "Alesina, Favero, and Giavazzi find that their main conclusions are valid even at the zero bound.... Expenditure-based austerity programs tend to impose lower costs on output than do programs based on tax hikes... [A] politician who tries to adopt an austerity program will [not necessarily] be kicked out of office.... The nature of any pathbreaking scholarship is that it sets the agenda for further research. Alesina, Favero, and Giavazzi have written a fundamentally non-ideological book that raises the bar for future studies of fiscal retrenchment policies. No doubt it will continue to set the standard for such research for many years to come, however much left-leaning polemicists try to dismiss it as blasphemy...

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Louis Brandeis believed that bigness is bad per se—thus failing to see that since, well, at least 1870 value chains and the division of the labor had become sufficiently complicated that efficient production required a great deal of central planning on the level of the large firm. Toyota sells 250 billion dollars worth of cars each year—that is 0.2 percent of global GDP—and roughly 2/3 of that value flow is under the centrally-planned direction of the Toyota design and production management teams, not the result of arms-length market-price deals between truly independent producers. Bork believed that any bigness was good if could be colorably or uncolorably claimed to be the result of some clever economy of scale that a lawyer who was part of the judge's social circle could think up was never credible as anything other than an excuse for rent-seeking corruption. To find the true path, look, and Jonathan Baker says, to FDR antitrust guru Thurman Arnold:

Jonathan Baker: Revitalizing U.S. Antitrust Enforcement Is Not Simply a Contest Between Brandeis and Bork—Look First to Thurman Arnold: "Growing market power in the United States today puts a spotlight on our nation’s antitrust laws—the critical policy tool for restoring competition where it is lacking—from airlines and brewing to hospitals and dominant online platforms. But how can these laws be made more effective in this environment? The best guide from the past is Thurman Arnold...

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Matt Bruenig: Various Job Guarantee Quotes: "Despite the long-standing JG promise of a program featuring shit jobs at s--- wages with the intent of undermining the regular welfare state and private sector workers, people have recently become very confused into thinking it is something else. Some of that confusion is just the result of clever messaging...

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Equitable Growth's Kate Bahn sends us to what she rightly describes as "a really heartbreaking and inspiring and important thread" treating to the death of Alan Krueger:

Kate Bahn: @LipstickEcon:

Liz Ananat: @LizAnanat: "I have some things to say about the death from depression of Alan Krueger.... Alan was unfailingly and unnecessarily kind to me. He also made many of the things I love about economics possible. But others e.g. @dynarski @arindube can speak better to these aspects of his life. What I can speak to is living with depression as an economist...

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Paul Krugman (2013): Milton Friedman, Unperson: "[It] is really interesting is the way Friedman has virtually vanished from policy discourse. Keynes is very much back.... Hayek is back in some sense.... But Friedman is pretty much absent. This is hardly what you would have expected not that long ago, when Friedman’s reputation bestrode the economic world like a colossus, when Greg Mankiw declared Friedman, not Keynes, the greatest economist of the 20th century...

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Martin Wolf: A Long Brexit Extension Offers a Chance To Think Again: "The withdrawal agreement does not command the needed support in parliament or country.... The UK economy is already some 2.5 per cent smaller than it would have been if Britain had not decided on Brexit. The knock-on effect on the public finances is, it argues, £360m a week, almost exactly the sum that the fount of economic wisdom, Boris Johnson, promised would be available after Brexit.... Philip Hammond, chancellor of exchequer, used to say that the British people 'did not vote to be poorer'. But they did. Alas, it could get far worse.... The view that the British people are enslaved by the EU is laughable. But the analogy is better than Mr Johnson knew. The freed Israelites wandered in the wilderness for 40 years. That was not the promise of the Brexit campaign. But it is probably accurate. A no-deal Brexit is likely to deliver a large negative shock, followed by decades of weaker growth in an economy with reduced access to its natural markets and shorn of global confidence. The prime minister is absolutely right to reject this option, though that has come far too late...

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Now we are up to four professional Republicans saying that Steve Moore is unqualified for the Fed: Greg Mankiw, Ross Douthat, Steve Moore himself, and now James Pethokoukis: James Pethokoukis: Don't let Trump blow up the Fed: "It is important that the Fed be independent both in practice and perception. We know what happens when it isn't.... While we don't know for sure why Burns decided to run a loose monetary policy in an already inflationary environment, his actions 'helped to trigger an extremely costly inflationary boom–bust cycle', concludes economist Burton Abrams in How Richard Nixon Pressured Arthur Burns: Evidence from the Nixon Tapes...

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According to the 2011 Census,, 140,000 people living in the United Kingdom had been born in France, with half of them—70,000—among the 8,000,000 people living in London. Of course, many more have French ancestry: The richest person under 30 in the world, Hugh Richard Louis Grosvenor, the Duke of Westminster, has prominent French ancestor—he is descended from Hugh the Fat Hunter, _gros veneur in France. And Elizabeth Windsor, the occupant of the most impressive house in London—a veritable palace—is herself descended from a French-Danish thug named Guillaume le Batard—"the bastard". But why is Tom Friedman such an idiot?: Tom Friedman: The United Kingdom Has Gone Mad: "The grievances of... of those who voted to leave... swamped by E.U. immigrants.... 300,000 French citizens living in London.... I had a drink with a member of Parliament in the bar in the House of Commons on Tuesday, and as we sat down he whispered to me that 'not a single person working in this whole building is British'...


#noted

Alexander Clarkson: "They could call it 'Freedom of Mobility': Adam Bienkov: 'Jeremy Corbyn’s spokesman on whether retaining free movement will be one of his demands in talks with May: “Freedom of movement ends when we leave the EU and we will replace it with fair management of migration...”' The attempt to scrap the UK's involvement in the EU's 'Freedom of Movement' structure is already falling apart at a glacial pace. It is heading to the point Switzerland has landed where cosmetic tweaks to keep cultural conservatives happy are a facade behind which nothing changes...

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Can you tell us how to get to Sesame Street? Our immensely powerful mass and segmented media could be used for much good—if we could figure out how to keep them from hacking our brains to glue our eyeballs to the screen so they could sell ads from people who often do not wish us well: Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip B. Levine: Early Childhood Education by Television: Lessons from Sesame Street: "We investigate whether preschool-age children exposed to Sesame Street when it aired in 1969 experienced improved educational and labor market outcomes. We exploit geographic variation in broadcast reception derived from technological factors, namely UHF versus VHF transmission...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (April 3, 2019)

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  1. Glory M. Liu: Research

  2. Wikipedia: Cara cara Navel Orange

  3. Glory M. Liu: Rethinking the “Chicago Smith” Problem: Adam Smith and the Chicago School, 1929–1980

  4. Paul Krugman (2013): The Neo-Paleo-Keynesian Counter-Counter-Counterrevolution

  5. Burnt Oranges with Rosemary

  6. Andrew M. Childs et al. (2002): Exponential Algorithmic Speedup by Quantum Walk: "We construct an oracular (i.e., black box) problem that can be solved exponentially faster on a quantum computer than on a classical computer.... We show how to implement the quantum walk efficiently in our oracular setting...

  7. Caffe Luxxe

  8. Barry Ritholtz: Math, Money, and Making a Difference: "MIT alumnus James Simons is a mathematician and founder of the highly quantitative investment firm Renaissance Technologies where he served as CEO for over 30 years before becoming board chair...

  9. Lucas Kwan Peterson: For Cramped New York, an Expanding Dining Scene: "In the city that never sleeps, as they say, the marquees of Times Square nearly make one forget the concrete dystopia of what is seemingly an unlivable urban wasteland. Surrounded by rats, black trash bags and graffiti-tagged storefronts on Broadway Street, New York’s primary thoroughfare, I wondered aloud if I would be able to find a decent meal in what was surely a culinary heart of darkness. In Los Angeles, we’re spoiled by the breadth and quality of our dining options...

  10. Mike Idsin: The Educational Admissions Scandal Widens Dramatically: "Wealthy parents would approach a person affiliated with a national organization, technically incorporated as a nonprofit, known by the initials NAR.... The individual would then provide a list of other people in the communities in question who, for a payment often topping 1 million, would permit the family to modify their mailing address in such a way that guaranteed entry into the exclusive schools. The details of the mailing-address system are complex and relate to systems often criticized by advocates, where complex laws dictate a precise and convoluted geographic zone where this address-modification scheme is permissible. The family would in most cases have to physically live in the location 'sold' by the counterparty, who would use the money to flee the jurisdiction.... A significant commission, often 5-6% of the payment, would go to the NAR agent(s)...

  11. Facebook defines "some passwords" = 600000000 passwords: Pedro Canahuati: Keeping Passwords Secure: "As part of a routine security review in January, we found that some user passwords were being stored in a readable format within our internal data storage systems...

  12. Noah Smith: Trump's Industrial Rebirth Is a Dead End: "There's no future in the U.S. for old-line manufacturers that dominated the mid-20th century economy...

  13. 2016: Monday Smackdown: Debating Societies, Talking Points, and Choosing Our Governors

  14. 2013 Monday Smackdown: No, Amity Shlaes Has No Idea What She Is Talking About. Why Do You Ask?: WTF!?!?!?!? Weblogging: Galbraith's claim that Coolidge did not know—i.e., did not know enough to feel he could challenge Mellon's talking points—and did not care—i.e., thought the US headed for disaster but did not bother to learn enough to think he had an informed enough view to challenge Mellon--seems to me to hit the nail on the head. Certainly Herbert Hoover thought so...

  15. 2006: Avadim Hayinu l'Pharaoh b'Mitzrayim: For a 'normal' California teenager like George Allen was once to sign up with the Confederacy is weird and creepy. For a half-Jewish California teenager to sign up with the Confederacy...

  16. 2009: Paul Krugman Urges Greg Mankiw to Pay More Attention to Quality Control: To me, the thing to note about the economists-the Mankiws, the Lucases, the Beckers, the Barros, and all the rest-who have pledged allegiance to the Republican Party this year is how much they have stopped thinking like economists.... I still remember being convinced by Rick Ericson when I had just turned 18 that thinking like an economist required that one always pay attention to three key principles: market equilibrium, individuals responding to incentives, cost-benefit tradeoffs.... I thought that Chicago-School economists believed in these principles too...

  17. 2005: Why Oh Why Are We Ruled by These Idiots? (Social Security Edition): It is a clown show,... The administration's Social Security gurus shove Bush out there with talking points saying that passing the Bush plan is essential because if we don't the Social Security trust fund balance will hit zero in 2041, and big benefit cuts will then be necessary—and then they roll out a plan in which the Social Security trust fund balance hits zero in 2030...

  18. 2008: Every Time I Try to Crawl Out, They Pull Me Back in!: Called on forty minutes' notice, I trot over to the J-School studio to be a talking head on BBC/Newsnight about Fannie and Freddie. I have my talking points ready: The chance that American taxpayers will actually lose any money if Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson decide that Fannie and Freddie need government support is very low.... Nevertheless, there is now a risk that Fannie and Freddie will need some form of government support in the next month.... And what do I find also on BBC/Newsnight when I get there? I FIND THAT I AM ON WITH GROVER-FRACKING-NORQUIST!! I FIND THAT I AM ON WITH GROVER-FRACKING-NORQUIST!!! WHO HAS THREE POINTS HE WANTS TO MAKE: Barack Obama wants to take your money by raising your taxes and pay it to the Communist Chinese. Oil prices are high today and the economy is in a near recession because of Nancy Pelosi.... Economic growth is stalling because congress has not extended the Bush tax cuts.... I am not paid enough to deal with this lying bullshit...

  19. Wikipedia: Richard Neville, 16th Earl of Warwick

  20. Olivia Nuzzi: Trump Aides Fear He Is Overselling His ‘Exoneration’: "'There will be plenty of unfavorable things about the president in the full report, which we think will eventually come out, so let’s not go overboard saying there’s no wrongdoing. Let’s move on', one senior White House official told me...

  21. Mark Bergen: YouTube Executives Ignored Warnings, Let Toxic Videos Run Rampant: "Proposals to change recommendations and curb conspiracies were sacrificed for engagement, staff say...

  22. Aaron Rupar: On Twitter: "TRUMP during NRCC speech: 'If you have a windmill anywhere near your house, congratulations, your house just went down 75 percent in value. And they say the noise causes cancer. You tell me that one, okay? Rerrrr rerrrr!'...

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Anna Stansbury: "The Black Death in England in the mid-1300s was an enormous human tragedy-and a fascinating labor supply shock. (Who said economists are heartless?) A thread FRED has a new record holder: The longest data series now belongs to a new addition, Population in England, which dates back to 1086. Check it out here: http://ow.ly/Dzkb50kfrvA. The Black Death first hit England in 1348. The population fell by more than a third in just a few years: from over 6 million to less than 4 million. As the graph from @stlouisfed and @bankofengland shows, it would take another 250 years for the population to recover...

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Kevin Drum: Five Things Donald Trump Said on Tuesday: "Today President Trump: 1. Tried three times to say the word 'origins' but instead said 'oranges'. 2. Said that his father was born in Germany, not New York City. 3. Complained, in a speech being televised on CSPAN, that he had to be careful because someone was probably going to leak what he said to the media. 4. In the same speech, warned Republicans to be 'more paranoid' because he 'doesn’t like the way the votes are being tallied.' 5.Said about wind farms, 'They say the noise causes cancer'. But don’t worry. His mental state is just fine. Nothing to see here...

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British Whigs in the mid-nineteenth century were not democrats—and not that anti-slavery: John Emerich Edward Dalberg-Acton, 1st Baron Acton (1866): "In a great speech... Mr. Stephens, the Vice President of the Confederacy, spoke these words:

The corner stone of our new government rests upon the great truth that the Negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery, subordination to the superior race, is his natural and normal condition. Our new government is the first in the history of the world based upon this great physical, philosophical, and moral truth...

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This strikes me as a very good thing: Sophia S. Armenakas and Molly C. McCafferty: Laibson and Furman to Take Over Ec10, Increase Number of Lectures: "Kennedy School Professor and former Obama economic advisor Jason Furman ’92 and Economics Professor David I. Laibson ’88 will take over teaching Economics 10: 'Principles of Economics' next fall. The two professors will replace Economics Professor N. Gregory Mankiw as course heads of Ec10, the department’s year-long flagship introductory course and one of Harvard’s largest undergraduate courses. Mankiw announced in early March that he will step down from teaching the course at the end of the semester to pursue 'new pedagogical challenges'. The two said they plan to change the course structure from its current format to make lectures 'far more frequent'. Instead of attending three sections per week with approximately 20 of those sections replaced by a lecture, students will attend two lectures and one section per week...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (March 31, 2019)

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  • Hoisted from the Archives: What I Wrote in Advance of the FOMC's September 2018 Meeting: "What a difference six months makes! And now the Fed really wishes it had not raised interest rates in the second half of 2018 and yet is unwilling to move them now back to the summer-of-2018 level. Why they are unwilling I do not know...

  1. Wikipedia: The Old Man & the Gun

  2. Stephen King (2014): Joyland https://books.google.com/books?isbn=1781168490

  3. A close encounter of the fourth kind: A Valentines Day gift gone horribly wrong, a Komodo Dragon, and Sharon Stone’s husband’s toes https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Editor-stable-after-attack-by-Komodo-dragon-2911601.php

  4. Australian cork hat/Monty Python: https://www.evernote.com/l/AAEEa4uqACJLEYfDQosMH6ib2nx5-sYDbycB/image.png http://www.montypython.net/scripts/bruceskit.php

  5. Lindsay Ellis finds a disaffected dwarf in New Zealand https://youtu.be/Qi7t_g5QObs?t=1285

  6. Wikipedia: Alasdair MacIntyre: "1970. Herbert Marcuse: An Exposition and a Polemic.... 1971. Against the Self-Images of the Age: Essays on Ideology and Philosophy.... 1981... After Virtue...

  7. Douglas 'Skoryy' Hayden: On Twitter: "I'm here for Jacobin's 'Four Legs Good, Two Legs Better' special edition... Matthew Yglesias: On Twitter: "The joke is that after the revolution instead of building a better society they’re going to start killing their enemies and then each other?... Jacob T. Levy: On Twitter: "Bookmarking this for the next time someone says 'nuh-uh, it only refers to Haiti and therefore has nothing to do with the French Jacobins'... XLProfessor: On Twitter: "Seriously? All the revolutionaries were killed with this thing and some soldier made himself emperor...

  8. [John Holbo: On Twitter: "It's weirder than a Jekyll-Hyde sort of split. It isn't strange that 'good' people have a 'bad' side. But it's strange that a genuinely broad-minded mentality can be trapped inside a narrow-minded mentality without one or the other utterly cancelling...

  9. Douglas Preston: The Day the Dinosaurs Died: "More than 99.9999 per cent of all living organisms on Earth died, and the carbon cycle came to a halt.... Earth itself became toxic... ten trillion tons of sulfur compounds... combined with water to form sulfuric acid, which then fell as an acid rain that may have been potent enough to strip the leaves from any surviving plants and to leach the nutrients from the soil. Today, the layer of debris, ash, and soot deposited by the asteroid strike is preserved in the Earth’s sediment as a stripe of black about the thickness of a notebook. This is called the KT boundary, because it marks the dividing line between the Cretaceous period and the Tertiary period...

  10. David Glasner: Arthur Burns and How Things Fell Apart in the 1970s: "Thus, in 1973, even without an oil shock in late 1973 used by Burns as an excuse with which to deflect the blame for rising inflation from himself to uncontrollable external forces, Burns’s monetary policy was inexorably on track to raise inflation to 7%...

  11. Thor Berger and Per Engzell: Immigration, Inequality and Intergenerational Mobility in the US: "There are striking regional variations in economic opportunity across the US. This column proposes a historical explanation for this, showing that local levels of income equality and intergenerational mobility in the US resemble those of the European countries that current inhabitants trace their origins from. The findings point to the persistence of differences in local culture, norms, and institutions...

  12. Charles Gaba: Three-Legged Stool: The Motion Picture

  13. Timothy Garton Ash: On Twitter: "Remember the Brexit battle bus £350m a week for the NHS? Brexit has already cost us £360m a week...

  14. Angry Staff Officer: On Twitter: "For Confederate Heritage Month, here's Virginia-native General Winfield Scott, senior officer in the US Army at the outset of the Civil War, whose strategy eventually won the war and who kept his oath to his country...

  15. Miles Kimball: In Honor of Alan Krueger

  16. Alexander Stephens, Vice President of the Confederacy: On Twitter: "The Declaration of Independence was fundamentally wrong.... The Confederate States are founded upon exactly the opposite ideas. Its foundations are laid, its cornerstone rests upon the great truth that the Negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery, subordination to the superior race, is his natural and moral condition...

  17. Cassandra Khaw: On Twitter: "A routine reminder that we do not have flying cars, but we have the means to access all of the world's knowledge with a few clicks of a keyboard, communicate with people thousands of miles away in an instant, and are working on artificial burger meat. Also, the world is going to end catastrophically very soon as a result of climate change and capitalism, but a cyberpunk present wouldn't be complete without impending doom...

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The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh was a huge mistake. Of course, the confirmations of the other four corrupt Republican justices were huge mistakes as well:

Robert Barnes: Brett Kavanaugh Pivots as Supreme Court Allows One Execution, Stops Another: "The Supreme Court on Thursday night stopped the execution of a Buddhist inmate in Texas because he was not allowed a spiritual adviser by his side, when last month it approved the execution of a Muslim inmate in Alabama under the almost exact circumstances.... Kavanaugh...

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THE SPICE MUST FLOW! NO HARD BORDER IN IRELAND!!: John Holbo: On Twitter: "May loses by >50 votes hence can’t quit as she would have if she had won. Could have been worse. If >100 loss -> May becomes dictator for life. >200 loss would make her god-emperor. Dodged that bullet...

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Adam-Troy Castro: Young People Read Old SFF: "Nobody discovers a lifelong love of science fiction through Asimov, Clarke, and Heinlein anymore, and directing newbies toward the work of those masters is a destructive thing, because the spark won't happen. You might as well advise them to seek out Cordwainer Smith or Alan E. Nourse—fine tertiary avenues of investigation, even now, but not anything that's going to set anybody's heart afire, not from the standing start. Won't happen...

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Almost a decade old, but well worth reading. Sam Bowles argues that liberal culture and order do not so much dissolve natural human sociability and compassion in the market nexus, but rather enable positive-sum ties of solidarity by weakening the zero-sum intra-clan sorority combined with inter-clan enmity:

Sam Bowles (2011): Is Liberal Society a Parasite on Tradition?: "Market-like incentives may crowd out ethical motivations, illustrating the parasitic liberalism thesis and the cultural and institutional processes by which it might work....Cross-cultural behavioral experiments...cast doubt on the thesis: liberal societies are distinctive in their civic cultures, exhibiting levels of generosity, fairmindedness, and civic involvement that distinguish them from non-liberal societies.... The idealized view of tradition embodied in the "parasitic liberalism" thesis overlooks aspects of non-liberal social orders that are antithetical to a liberal civic culture. Thus while markets and other liberal institutions may indeed undermine traditional institutions as claimed, by attenuating familistic and other parochial norms and identities, this may enhance rather than erode the values necessary for a well functioning liberal order...

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Pharmaceutical price reform is one of the very few equitable growth issues where there are actually Republican legislators willing to talk: CPPC: Senate Finance Committee Grills Drug Executives on Rising Prices, Criticize Them for Terrible Practices: "Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) opened by saying that America has a problem with high prescription drug prices, that a balance can be struck between innovation and affordability, and that the Committee was here to discuss solutions. He and Senator Wyden have launched a bipartisan investigation into the high price of insulin...

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Equitable Growth's Will McGrew has a pinned tweet pushing back against the meme that there are "really" no worrisome ethnicity or gender wage gaps because researchers can make such gaps disappear by adding sufficient variables to the right-hand side of a regression analysis. But when you add additional explanatory variables—when you "control"—you need to be very careful that you are only controlling for things that confound the relationship you are trying to study. When you control for things that mediate that relationship, you land up in garbage-in-garbage-out territory:

Will McGrew: Wage Gaps: "Some claim that the wage gap disappears if you control for all relevant variables. This is 100% false. According to the evidence, workplace segregation and discrimination are the largest causes of the wage gap faced by Black women...

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Joan R. Rosés and Nikolaus Wolf: Regional Economic Development In Europe, 1900-2010: A Description Of The Patterns: "Regional employment structures and regional GDP and GDP per capita in 1990 international dollars, stretching over more than 100 years.... Variation in the density of population and economic activity, the spread of industry and services and the declining role of agriculture... changes in the levels of GDP and GDP per capita... patterns of convergence and divergence over time and their explanations... a secular decrease in spatial coherence... a U-shaped development in geographic concentration and regional income inequality, similar to the finding of a U-shaped pattern of personal income inequality...

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Can someone parse this for me? On the one hand "I should have... I could also have... voices... ought to have been considered..." and yet "an apology would be the wrong response". Is the claim "I made bad mistakes, but I am proud that I made them, and anyone who wants me to try to fix things should get stuffed?" Isn't that what "I refuse to apologize"! means?: Ian Buruma: An Apology Would Be the Wrong Response: "I should have insisted that the accusations against him were spelt out in more detail. He omitted the fact that he had caused injury, with reports of one woman suffering a cracked rib, and he didn’t mention the large number of women who had accused him. I could also have made it clear that our intention had not been to exonerate him, let alone to excuse violence against women.... The voices of his accusers ought to have been considered, as a response to his evasions...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (March 30, 2019)

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  • Professional Republicans, Not Professional Economists: How Low can They Go?: Among the professional Republicans, Ross Douthat joins Greg Mankiw in opposition to Steve Moore. So far, they are the only two I have seen—and Greg Mankiw is the only economist.... So far, not a peep I have seen out of anybody else: not Marty Feldstein, Michael J. Boskin, John Cogan, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Glenn Hubbard, Lawrence B. Lindsey, Harvey S. Rosen, George P. Shultz, John. B. Taylor, James C. Miller III, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Barry W. Poulson, Charles W. Calomiris, Donald Luskin, or Glenn Hubbard...

  • Yes, Of Course Larry Kudlow Is For QE Now and Was Against It When Obama Was President. Why Would You Think Otherwise?

  • Comment of the Day: Grizzled: "How Asia Works by Joe Studwell... the accounts he gives of successful asian development don't seem to emphasize absolute property rights...

  • HA HA HA HA HA! Larry Lindsey and John Taylor: "PLEASE APPOINT US TO SOMETHING!! WE ARE LOYAL!!!! WE ARE NPOSTLTE PEOPLE!!!!!! PLEASE!!!!!!!!": At some level, this is hilarious.... Greg Mankiw has said the obvious: that Stephen Moore is not qualified to be a Fed Governor.... Kevin Hassett—Kevin Hassett!—appears to are frantically trying to organize internal opposition.... And so John Taylor and Larry Lindsey decide that now is the time for them to demonstrate that they are NO PLATE OF SHIT TOO LARGE TO EAT people, as far as a Republican White House is concerned...

  • Weekend Reading: Salisbury the Late-Nineteenth Century Grand Strategist, as Explicated by Roberts, According to Gaddis: John Lewis Gaddis's On Grand Strategy is not a book I would recommend highly.... However, there are two passages in the book that struck me very positively...

  • For the Weekend: Florence + The Machine: Tiny Dancer

  • Comment of the Day: Howard: "We need to remember that every other country in the world is now making plans on the expectation that having elected a trump once, America could easily do it again...

  • Note to Self: "Job Guarantee" vs. "Functional Finance": Job Guarantee: "Our policy is for the government to run a deficit to offer low-quality make-work low-pay jobs that suck". Functional Finance: "Our policy is for the government to run a deficit so that the labor market is in balance with employers getting the most value for their money possible and workers getting the most money for their time and energy possible with unemployment reduced to a 'frictional' level". Job Guarantee is really stupid on many levels. Functional Finance is really smart. Put me down for Functional Finance...

  • Modern Dan Drezner Is Much Better...: "The Worst Piece Of Conventional Wisdom You Will Read This Year.... Stagflation in the 1970s.... Fiscal policy was an innocent bystander to this whole shebang. So I honestly don’t know what the hell Kinsley is talking about...

  • So, Professor Drezner, We Meet Again. And THIS TIME THE ADVANTAGE IS MINE!: Dan Drezner appears to mourn for the days when I was his nemesis.... I read Drezner's piece in 2005 as an exercise in politics according to Karl Schmitt: that Drezner is following Schmitt's advice that one's first move when engaging in politics is to focus on identifying your enemies.... Here the point of Drezner's piece is to assure (reassure?) his audience that his enemies are "Jackson and Sharpton... that thing they do", which is to confront white politicians who are then "required to mau-mau kowtow to Jackson and Sharpton for something they say..." And he defines them as his enemies even though "they have a pretty valid point". I am glad Drezner no longer does this...

  • I Said "Pass the Baton" to Those Further Left than I, Not "Bend the Knee": Last night at dinner at Iyesare, Noah Smith admonished me for not making it clear that I said "pass the baton" to those further left, not "bend the knee". So here I make that clear.... I said: pass the baton, right? I said: pass the baton. And yet as the thing spreads out into the Internet, it gets turned into "surrender", "abandon my beliefs", "bend at the knee", all kinds of other things...

  • No Longer Fresh at Project Syndicate: Why Isn't the Federal Reserve Buying Recession Insurance?

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The Financial Times—which in the circles I travel is widely-regarded as the only real newspaper, as the only one where when it publishes new things they are likely to be true while also publishing more than its quota of true things that are new, rather than taking its core mission to be pleasing its well-connected sources first and its advertisers second—should not have published this. Ian Buruma's transgression was that he took his authority and the authority fo the New York Review of Books and used it give a man—Jian Ghomeshi—who had assaulted more than 20 women space to lie, uncorrected. And the FT should correct this story, and add to the article a headnote noting that Ian Buruma does not even now understand how he was unprofessional as an editor: Ian Buruma: Editing in an Age of Outrage: "Ian Buruma lost his job at the NYRB after publishing a controversial article. Here he reflects on what went wrong... '[My] transgression was not that any particular view was defended, but that a person accused of sexual abuses should be heard at all...

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This is, I think, wrong: it was not eugenics that shrank the number of full Spartiates—it was assortative mating that increased land-wealth inequality and so pushed many children of Spartiates below the required property-ownership bar. This means, among other things, that the right strategy for Athens in the second half of the 400s BC was the appeasement of Sparta by every means possible. It was weakening itself generation by generation: Sarah Bond: This Is Not Sparta: "In a recent article within the ancient history journal Historia, historian Timothy Doran addresses the evidence for the use of eugenics in ancient Sparta. In the fourth century BCE the number of elite Spartan citizens had declined sharply, from about 8,000 adult males around 480 BCE to around 1,000 in the mid-fourth century. Doran attributes the dwindling of the Spartan population to their 'cultural, eugenic, and racial exclusivity' that kept marginalized groups from becoming part of Sparta as its numbers decreased. Citizenship was notoriously hard to achieve and was predicated on ideas of purity and lineage...

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Many Democrats have been saying "at its core, ObamaCare is a Republican idea from the Heritage Foundation!" and Scott Lemieux has been saying "Republicans have always hated the idea of making health care affordable to those who cannot pay through the nose in a broken adversely-selected market!" The many Democrats have said that by ignoring its Heritage Foundation roots Scott is making ObamaCare appear to be a more extreme-lefty plan than it is. Scott has been saying that by pushing the "ObamaCare = HeritageCare and RomneyCare" line the many Democrats have been feeding the myth that Reepublicans are actually in favor of getting more people health care. Can't we agree that ObamaCare does have Heritage roots but that the Heritage Plan was never intended to be a serious policy proposal? Can't we agree that the fact that the core of ObamaCare was a compromise that Mitt Romney felt he could accept is a sign that it is not a lefty plan? Can't we all just get along?: Scott Lemieux: You Ever Think They're Not Acting?: "As long as John Roberts remains the median vote of the Court—not a trivial condition!—this suit has virtually no chance of actually destroying the ACA, but is handing Democrats a nice political gift. The 'we support healthcare reform, just not this healthcare reform' con Republicans have been running for decades—with lots of inexplicable help from liberals–is finally over...

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Ian Dunt: Indicative Votes: A People's Vote Just Became Much More Likely: "This was a very good night for the People's Vote campaign.... Oliver Letwin... made it clear that it would be a multi-stage process... [with] a further day... which would move from finding the options with substantial support and see if any of them could secure a majority.... The government whipped against it, in a last-gasp attempt to kill off the process, and they failed.... There were surprisingly clear answers about what kinds of propositions might be able to secure support.... The hardline Brexit options fell hard.... Soft Brexit did surprisingly badly. Labour's alternate plan, which does not specify a model, fell by 237-307.... Two propositions stood out.... Ken Clarke's proposal for the UK to stay in the customs union fell by just 264 votes to 272.... Margaret Beckett's motion calling for a confirmatory public vote on whatever deal was passed fell by 268 votes to 295... a far tighter margin than expected and also the single largest positive vote for any Brexit option so far.... The question now becomes which options are brought back to be decided on on Monday. Logically, it should be customs union membership and a second referendum, but Letwin may want to include one or two more. There is also a question about the voting system.... It's only been 48 hours since the Letwin amendment was passed. And already the Brexit debate is changing beyond all recognition...

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Adam Tooze: Is This the End of The American Century?: America Pivots: "It is a gross exaggeration to talk of an end to the American world order. The two pillars of its global power–military and financial–are still firmly in place. What has ended is any claim on the part of American democracy to provide a political model. This is certainly a historic break.... Trump has forever personified the sleaziness, cynicism and sheer stupidity that dominates much of American political life. What we are facing is a radical disjunction between the continuity of basic structures of power and their political legitimation. If America’s president mounted on a golf buggy is a suitably ludicrous emblem of our current moment, the danger is that it suggests far too pastoral a scenario: American power trundling to retirement across manicured lawns. That is not our reality. Imagine instead the president and his buggy careening around the five-acre flight deck of a $13 billion, Ford-class, nuclear-powered aircraft carrier engaged in ‘dynamic force deployment’ to the South China Sea. That better captures the surreal revival of great-power politics that hangs over the present. Whether this turns out to be a violent and futile rearguard action, or a new chapter in the age of American world power, remains to be seen...

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Still only Greg Mankiw out of professional Republican economists publicly opposed to Steve Moore to the Fed. Still only Ross Douthat among professional Republican non-economists publicly opposed to the Fed: Catherine Rampell: Stephen Moore Says He’s No Trump Sycophant. But He Sure Sounds Like One: "He says that Trump has a rockin’ bod and deserves a Nobel Prize: Stephen Moore... 'I don’t think anybody can reasonably say I am a sycophant for Trump, because I’m not'. Come. On. Moore has spent the past three years serving as surrogate, spin doctor and sycophant.... Moore has... abandoned many of the other issues in his 'economic philosophy'.... Once a warrior for free trade, Moore now regularly defends Trump’s tariffs. Until recently a champion of undocumented immigrants, he now rails against them.... Previously an inflation truther who warned that official government statistics were hiding the dangerous hyperinflation just around the corner, he is suddenly a deflation truther.... Consider the personal flattery.... The president is 'very charismatic', 'clever', 'gutsy' and 'the greatest marketer of modern times'.... 'What a showman! What a gifted orator'... 'looks like a football player, in incredible, great shape'... 'in all seriousness... Donald Trump deserves the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics'...

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I think Athenian democracy had this right: not only are you allowed to call for new votes, but after the new vote the advocates for the position taken in the first vote are liable for criminal prosecution for having convinced the government to pass an unjust law: Hans-Werner Sinn: Let the People Decide on Brexit: "British voters now know far more about Brexit and its possible consequences than they did at the time of the 2016 referendum. Given the narrow majority for leaving the European Union back then, and the impasse at which UK institutions find themselves now, holding a new referendum is both appropriate and necessary...


#noted

Let the record show that the Spartans did not show up for Marathon, save for the 300 hid in the Peloponnese until others had borne the brunt of the battle at Salamis, surrendered at Sphakteria, allied with the Mede to try to destroy the freedom of the Greeks, and then hid in the Peloponnese from Philip, Alexander, and their successors: Paul Rahe: Was There a Spartan Mirage?: "the predilections and preferences fostered by bourgeois society and a reflection of our propensity to make of the past a morality tale supportive of our own way of life. If Lacedaemon is worthy of study today, it is as the opposite. For its example serves nicely as a corrective to our propensity for supposing ourselves the pinnacle of humanity. How well, we should ask, would we measure up if the Mede were to return? Would we fight? Or would we collaborate?...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (March 26, 2019)

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  1. Shelly Hagan and Wei Lu: San Francisco's `Super Rich' Lead a Widening U.S. Wealth Divide: "The Income Gap Is Getting Worse in American Cities. U.S. income gap between top 5% and middle 20% grew by 118,000. Boise City, Idaho, and Knoxville, Tennessee, have robust gaps: The tech hub’s 'super-rich versus middle-class' gap swelled by $118,000 to $529,500 over the past five years, as the top 5 percent of households earned $632,310 in 2017, compared with $102,785 for the middle class, according to the Bloomberg analysis of U.S. Census data...

  2. Richard Samans: Better Labor Standards Must Underpin the Future of Work: "As technology and deregulation continue to shape the labor market, maintaining strong worker protections is as important as ever...

  3. Hess Chung and Eric Engen (20134): Identifying the Sources of the Unexpectedly Weak Economic Recovery Using the FRB/US Model

  4. Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo: The Economic Lives of the Poor

  5. Daniel Alpert: What the Federal Reserve Got Totally Wrong about Inflation and Interest Rate Policy: Getting Real About Rents

  6. Jared Bernstein: On the Economy

  7. Katrin Gödker, Peiran Jiao, and Paul Smeets: Investor Memory: "Self-serving memory bias... distorts beliefs and drives investment choices. Subjects who previously invested in a risky stock are more likely to remember positive investment outcomes and less likely to remember negative outcomes. In contrast, subjects who did not invest but merely observed the investment outcomes do not have this memory bias. Importantly, subjects do not adjust their behavior to account for the fallibility of their memory...

  8. Wired: How Animators Created the Spider-Verse

  9. Mark Thoma: Links (3/24/19)

  10. Ben Thompson: Apple’s Services Event: "The problem, though, is that there will never be a product like the iPhone again; Apple may have found its product future (good for developers and customers), but its financial future is less certain (not so good for Wall Street)...

  11. Data For Progress: A Green New Deal. New Consensus: Green New Deal

  12. Menzie Chinn: "Stop Stephen Moore from being appointed to the Fed. Here is a non-exhaustive recounting of Moore’s reign of error...

  13. Marina Hyde: Get Set for Brexit: Indicative Day–The One Where the Grand Wizards Turn on Each Other: "On Sunday it was all looking so good for the Brexit ultras. Then came Monday, and that parliamentary vote.... Like all initiatives handled by Oliver Letwin since the 1980s, it promises to go spectacularly wrong in ways we haven’t even thought of yet, but let’s pretend otherwise before the shitstorm gets properly under way on Wednesday...

  14. Catherine Rampell: The Op-Ed that Got Stephen Moore His Fed Nomination Is Based on Two Major Falsehoods: "Trump has nominated to the world’s most powerful central bank a guy who has trouble telling whether prices are going up or down, and struggles to remember how the most famous Fed chair in history successfully stamped out inflation. But hey, Republican senators still seem keen on him because 'the establishment' keeps pointing out how inept he is...

  15. Nick Timiraos: @NickTimiraos: "Ben Sasse supports Moore: 'Steve’s nomination has thrown the card-carrying members of the Beltway establishment into a tizzy, and that says little about Steve and his belief in American ingenuity, but a lot about central planners’ devotion to groupthink'...

  16. Catherine Rampell: Stephen Moore Could Inflict More Long-Term Damage than Any of Trump’s Other Nominations: "President Trump has made a lot of ill-advised nominations. But perhaps no single choice could inflict more long-term damage than the one he announced Friday: Stephen Moore, Trump’s pick to join the Federal Reserve Board...

  17. Jo Walton (2010): The Suck Fairy

  18. Martin Cahill: A Stunning Debut: Arkady Martine’s "A Memory Called Empire"

  19. UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose: @IIPPUCL_: "Watch as @bankofengland Chief Economist Andy Haldane explores 10 monetary myths that will help present and future generations to rethink and reframe the way we organise our economies, our financial systems and our societies https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=Ul0pTVl8l98...

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Charles Pierce: Khalid Shaikh Mohammad Tapes Went Unreviewed in Lead-Up to 9/11 in Latest Bush Administration Blunder: "'Terry McDermott, co-author of “The Hunt for KSM,” said his research found that United States satellites “randomly scooped up” calls between Mr. Mohammed and an alleged deputy, Ramzi bin al-Shibh. “The N.S.A. intercepted calls but didn’t listen to them or translate them until after 9/11,” he said. “Afterward, they went through this stuff and found out what it was.”' It is here where we remind everyone that one of the first things John Ashcroft did after being named attorney general by President C-Plus Augustus was to reorient the Justice Department's priorities toward porn and busting Tommy Chong for weed... how clustered was the fck that was the intelligence community... in the summer of 2001... how desperate were the efforts to cover up all of the above, and more, in the wake of the attacks themselves...

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Indicative Votes How Parliament Will Try to Change Brexit Bloomberg

Robert Hutton: Indicative Votes: How Parliament Will Try to Change Brexit: "Members of Parliament will have put forward proposals they think should be voted on and it’s up to Bercow to choose which go forward.... At 7 p.m., Bercow will draw proceedings to a close and announce the vote. This won’t be like the usual House of Commons votes, where MPs walk through different lobbies to express their views. Instead, they’ll be given a piece of paper listing the options, and asked to vote Aye or No on each one. They’ll have half an hour.... Counting the indicative votes will probably take around an hour, and it will be up to Bercow whether he interrupts the government debate to announce the result, or waits until later. So some time before 10 p.m. The results will show how many MPs voted for and against each motion, and what happens next depends on that. Under Letwin’s proposals, Parliament will next have control of its own agenda on Monday April 1. That could be used to narrow options further, or to order the government to pursue a particular course of action...

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Brad Setser: Why China's Incomplete Macroeconomic Adjustment Makes China 2025 a Bigger Risk: "China... wants to 'localize' the production of the bulk of the high tech goods that its economy needs... Made in China 2025... a mix of subsidies (some disguised, as they flow through state-backed investment funds and the financial sectors) and 'Buy China' preferences.... Losses... China is good at both hiding them—and, well, absorbing what at the time seems like large losses as an inevitable cost of its rapid growth. The usual argument against such a mix of industrial policy and protectionism is that it just won’t work. A country that subsidizes its industries ends up with inefficient industries.... But China, is, to use Philip Pan’s phrase, the state that failed to fail...

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