Must-Read: Why Fossil Fuel Power Plants Will Be Left Stranded: "Virtually all new fossil fuel-burning power-generation capacity will end up ‘stranded’...:
Archives Highlighted Previous Edit COVID Market for Man Slavery 20th C. Reading 'Chicago'
Must-Read: Why Fossil Fuel Power Plants Will Be Left Stranded: "Virtually all new fossil fuel-burning power-generation capacity will end up ‘stranded’...:
Live from the North Pole: "Arctic sea ice has reached a record low...::
Must-Read: No More Berning of Fossil Fuels: "Of the GOP front runners, only Marco Rubio has an energy or climate plan on his website...:
Barack Obama promised his supporters that he would run a government not for Blue States or Red States but for the United States. And to that end Obama has attempted to adopt:
Thoroughly centrist governance.
Thoroughly technocratic governance.
And yet the execrable Josh Kraushaar claims that the radical-left policies of the Kenyan Muslim Socialist have driven the Republican Party justifiably mad...
Ezra Klein delivers the proper smackdown:
Obamacare didn’t pave the way for Donald Trump. The GOP’s response to it did: "Political Twitter fell all over itself mocking this article [by Josh Kraushaar] blaming Al Franken for the rise of Donald Trump...:
Live from Over the Front Range of the Rockies: 2 Degrees: "For the first time, the Northern Hemisphere averaged 2 degrees Celsius above average on March 3...:
...blasting through a long-held limit of what acceptable climate change would look like. But no one really cares. Let’s just talk of nothing but Trump.
Must-Read: Calling Cliff Asness, Steve Levitt, Steve Dubner, and company. Shouldn't you be saying something right now? Aren't you under a YUGE moral obligation to be saying something right now? Have you no ovaries at all that you can stay so quiet right now?
February 2016's Shocking Global Warming Temperature Record: "Global temperatures hit a new all-time record high in February...:
Must-Read: Let the record show that there was never any honest and honorable statistical or smoothing model-based way of extracting global-warming trends that would even hint that there was some kind of "pause" in global warming starting at the very end of the twentieth century:
And let the record show that those I ran across who were claiming that there was such a "pause"--the Tobin Harshaws and the Clifford Assesses and the Tom Campbells and the Steve Levitts and the Steve Dubners and the Russ Robertses the Richard Mullers and the George Wills--ought to be profoundly ashamed of themselves, and would be if they were capable of shame:
Global Warming Went On a Rampage in 2015: "Remember that old chestnut, the climate chart that starts in 1998...:
Must-Read: Facing Up to Climate Reality: "Achieving a low-carbon economy is essential...:
Live from the North PoleTemperatures Rose Above Freezing at the North Pole Today: "It isn’t just the US that’s getting walloped with bizarre weather....:
Must-Read: You Can Barely Even See Yosemite's Largest Glacier Anymore: "Lyell Glacier was Yosemite's National Park’s largest glacier...:
Live from "I Frati": As Jonathan Chait points out, the Republican establishment today is not just pandering to kooky climate- and other -deniers, more than half of what passes for the Republican establishment today are kooky climate- and other -deniers:
How GOP ‘Thought Police’ Enforce Science Denial: "Though it was surely not his intention...:
...David Brooks... made an airtight case for why no sane person would support any Republican.... Brooks begins... by conceding that climate-science deniers have a hammerlock on public discourse within the party....
Live from La Farine: After thinking: This didn't say what I wanted it to say, and what I wanted it to say wasn't the point I should have been making. So this is staying down.
Apologies to all...
[Let me take this down while I think about this some more...]
Live from La Farine: Round I to El Nino!
Must-Read: Climate Change Will Reshape Global Economy: "Unmitigated climate change is likely to reduce the income of an average person on Earth by roughly 23 percent in 2100...:
Republicans are going all out to sabotage a global climate deal: "Over the past year, GOP leaders, driven by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)...:
...have made a radical shift in the party’s public position on climate change. They are now actively seeking to destroy a global climate deal. In any other universe this would be a major news story. But I guess the mainstream media has become so jaded to what the Koch brothers and Tea Party have done to the Republican party at a national level, that this radical shift seems just like another dog-bites-man-story, albeit one where the wound is fatal.
Live from Above the Sierra Nevada: Snow! The One Who Is be praised, snow!
Must-Read: I guess I must be more optimistic than David Roberts--I still think the odds are favorable that we will learn how to manage our climate before we have had 100,000,000 unnecessary and avoidable premature deaths from global warming:
Jon Chait Wrote an Optimistic Take on Climate Change. Is it justified?: "my favorite part is Chait's straight talk...:
...about the Republican Party:
The entire world is, in essence, tiptoeing gingerly around the unhinged second-largest political party in the world’s second-largest greenhouse-gas emitter, in hopes of saving the world behind its back.
Live from Strada: Our LA heat and smog is gone!
It was glorious--if and only if you were at the beach. Otherwise, not so much...
Must-Read: Hottest July On Record Keeps 2015 On Track To Crush 2014 For Hottest Year: "NASA reports this was the hottest July on record...:
Live from Bullwinkle Plaza: This isn't San Francisco weather. This isn't Santa Barbara weather. This is San Diego weather!
Live from La Farine: 2015 Is Crushing It for Hottest Year on Record::
Live from La Farine: The California rainy season is not quite over yet...
Much of California could get some semi-decent rain & snow this week pic.twitter.com/VGfWMkYQ0E— Paul Kedrosky (@pkedrosky) April 4, 2015
...pointed out last week that he has a surprising ally: 'Iconic liberal constitutional scholar Laurence Tribe--who was President Obama’s constitutional law professor at Harvard Law School--said he agrees.'... The Wall Street Journal devoted an entire editorial to extolling this smackdown of Obama.... Tribe is being paid for his advocacy by a coal company called Peabody Energy....
Other law professors, like Richard Revesz, Jody Freeman, and Richard Lazarus, have called Tribe’s legal argument frivolous and absurd....
Comment of the Day: Global Warming in Action in the California Snowpack?: "[Climate] 'Normal' is an average taken from too short a period of time....:
(Certainly in that graph; the generality of the statement is harder to defend.) (The period of European habitation being too short to be a sufficient period of time for a meaningful average.) Picking 2011 is defensible on the grounds that the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge showed up thereabouts; if we're in a new climate regime (well, duh) that's arguably enough when it started for California.
I already posted it: here
Over at Medium: I have a different take on Asness and Brown than Mark Buchanan does — largely because I take Asness and Brown’s claim to be just doing “climate-knowledge-free statistics” to be made in bad-faith.
Live from the Elmwood Cafe: Global Warming in Action?:
Live from Outside the Dupont Circle Starbucks: it does not snow in Washington DC on March 20. That is all.
Live from La Farine: Here Are the Water Restrictions California Should Have Passed Today: "After confronting the truth that we have only one year of water left, California passed new water restrictions today which are WIMPY AS HELL...:
Live from La Farine: Mother Nature Is Scaring Me:
I must say: Mother Nature giving Berkeley the climate of Malibu this winter has made it extremely pleasant to be here--especially when one thinks that one might be in Boston.
But it does make me raise my estimate of the disruptions to be caused even during my lifetime by global warming.
I am not really scared yet: but give me another two drought years in a row, and I will be...
Liveblogging from Beneath My Electric Blanket: If you think I am going to leave this room today, you are wrong:
Some Hoisted from the Archives from Six Years Ago, Most Newer...: Speaking of people who had not done their homework, were spreading lots of wrong information, and who lack the ovaries to have ever marked their beliefs to market or apologize for their purveying misinformation, we have Allan Meltzer starting in February 2009 as the Paul Revere of the coming upward breakout of inflation.
It is a real clown show.
Blood and souls for my Lord Arioch, it is dry!
UPDATE: Cliff Asness states that I misinterpreted his column: that he did not intend for his:
I'm amazed that a Paul Krugman can look at 15+ years of the earth not warming and feel his beliefs [on global warming] need no modification...
to be a right-wingnut dog-whistle claim that global warming from human activity had stopped and was unlikely to resume.
@delong: .@Cimmerian999 Suggest you replace “the earth not warming” with “surface atmosphere temperatures not exceeding extraordinary spike of 1998”
.@Cimmerian999: .@delong Yes, in a paragraph meant to be funny (lost on you and Jesse obviously) that would work much better.
...can look at 15+ years of the earth not warming and feel his beliefs need no modification or explanation...
What next, Cliff? ShadowStats? Queen Elizabeth a secret lizard-person? Moon landing faked?
Along the banks of the Missouri, 4.5 degrees of warming means a much smaller Missouri--much less snowpack on the eastern slope of the Rockies--and less rain, as wet Gulf of Mexico air is pushed eastward and replaced by air from the Sonoran Desert...
Joanna Foster: Missouri's Solar Problem: Too Many People Like It | ThinkProgress: "Missouri... is on the cusp of a solar revolution.
The state had just 39 megawatts of solar installed at the end of 2013, putting it in 17th place nationally. But by mid-2014, as much as 110 megawatts of solar is expected to be online, potentially making Missouri a solar leader in the Midwest. Unfortunately that could be the end of the solar story in Missouri.... The solar rebates that have helped propel the growth are abruptly ending, six years before the gradual phase-out that had been planned....
Maximillian Auffhammer: Why the cool kids are flocking to energy and not water economics: "Why do kids like to go to birthday parties?
Because there is lots of sugar and other kids. Academic economists are not that different. Energy economics has attracted a lot of new bright minds, both young and not so young. The reason is simple: It’s an important topic; the people working in this space are people you want to hang out with (yes Severin, Lucas, Catherine, and Meredith, I mean you); and there are lots of really good data (the sugar). What surprises me is that water economics has not experienced the same influx.... The reason for it is simple: The data are terrible....
Eric Laermans: The Launch of fivethirtyeight.com and Climate Change Disaster Weblogging: (Trying to Be) The Honest Broker for the Week of March 29, 2014: "I can't help but wonder why nobody is pointing out...
...that including costs incurred from natural disasters completely unrelated to climate change (e.g. earthquakes or volcano eruptions) also is a deadly sin against correct data-driven analysis. These non-climate-related disasters add a lot of noise to the data and make it needlessly harder to identify the impact of climate change on the global cost due to natural disasters, unless of course it was the author's intent to muddle the analysis.
In fact, when you look at the data Pielke uses to establish his claim that costs of natural disasters are (a) growing over time but (b) not growing faster than one would expect given growing wealth, you wonder why Nate Silver or somebody else didn't bounce the article immediately.
The big enchilada in Pielke's 1990-2013 graph is the 2011 Honshu Earthquake:
Conditional on the Honshu Earthquake happening in his sample, it is just pure chance that the Honshu Earthquake happened at the end rather than at the beginning. And if the Honshu Earthquake had happened in, say, 1991, it would have done more damage: the Japanese economy has not grown materially since 1990, and Japanese earthquake safety standards have materially improved.
When the shape of one's quantitative argument about the costs of global warming hinges on a huge and damaging earthquake occurring at the end rather than near the beginning of one's sample, one can be said to be doing many things--but not data science...
Joe Romm: N.Y. Times and Elisabeth Rosenthal Face Credibility Siege over Unbalanced Climate Coverage | ThinkProgress: "Dr. Robert J. Brulle of Drexel University,
whom the NYT itself quoted last year as “an expert on environmental communications,” emailed me that the piece is “the worst, one sided reporting I have ever seen.”
When I called him up, he went further saying:
In this article, the New York Times has become an echo-chamber for the climate disinformation movement.
Over at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth: The Launch of fivethirtyeight.com and Climate Change Disaster Weblogging: (Trying to Be) The Honest Broker for the Week of March 29, 2014: I confess that I had forgotten about the existence of Roger Pielke, Jr.--the last trace I can find of him in my Augmented Memory Packs dates to February, 2010 when Google sent me off to:
and I read:
Nate Silver goes from hero to goat, convicted by the Left of apostasy: Pity Nate Silver. Hero of the Left for his successful take-down of GOP’s election forecasts, shooting down their delusions about Romney’s chances of victory. Good Leftists like Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman heaped praises on Silver, catapulting him into a sweet gig at ESPN. The poor guy thought the applause was for his use of numbers in pursuit in truth, when it was purely tribal. Their applause were just tribal grunts — we good, they bad — in effect chanting: “Two legs good. Four legs bad.” Right out of the box at his new venture, ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight, Silver committed apostasy, and the Left reacted with the fury true believers mete out to their betrayers. He posted “Disasters Cost More Than Ever — But Not Because of Climate Change” by Roger Pielke, Jr....
Since, as I said, I had forgotten about the existence of Roger Pielke, Jr., I was somewhat annoyed at being told that my applause for Silver had just been a "tribal grunt". So I asked: READ MOAR
Outsourced to Blue Girl: They gave us a republic...:: What's the Worst that Could Happen?: "Al Gore... spoke to a packed Grand Ballroom at the Westin Crown Center for about an hour, and the audience could not have been more receptive or friendlier.
He was clearly a man at ease, who knew he was among friends, and this was conveyed by a warm, engaging and easy manner. It was enough to make me wonder "Where was this guy in 2000? This guy would have carried his home state, or at least most of those Nader voters and that would have been enough."... What is within our power to change, as he pointed out, is the future, and then he made the people... responsible for making sure we each and every one understood that we are integral to making sure that we, as a society, choose the right pathways as we move forward....
It is delightful:
And the "alert" is that there will come soft rains:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 152 PM PST MON FEB 24 2014
CAZ006-505>513-516>518-528>530-251000- SAN FRANCISCO- COASTAL NORTH BAY...INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE- NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS- SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST- EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE- SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-SANTA CLARA VALLEY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE- SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO- SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST- MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK- NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY- NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST- 152 PM PST MON FEB 24 2014
...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WITH MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ON THE WAY...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAINFALL TO THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND IMPACTING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION THERE WILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND THEN SPREADING INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND MOVES ONSHORE. LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS BY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE COASTAL HILLS WITH A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE FOR THE VALLEYS.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY BUT A GENERAL DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REGION WILL BE IN-BETWEEN STORMS.
THE NEXT STORM WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS STRONGER BUT SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE FOCUSED MORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NONETHELESS THE ENTIRE BAY AREA IS EXPECTED RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH BAY AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS. A STRONG SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OCEAN...ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS. WEEKLY RAIN TOTALS BY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE VALLEYS WITH TWO TO FIVE INCHES IN THE WETTEST COASTAL HILLS.
COLD RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME LONG RANGE MODELS HINTING AT MORE POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEMS LATER SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY.
AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER NOW IS THE TIME TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR THE WET AND WINDY WEATHER THAT WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS WEEK.
This is the scary one:
I'd say it's time to start towing icebergs down from the Arctic Ocean to melt off the coast for fresh water... if there were going to be any icebergs in the Arctic Ocean
Tbogg: We were dead before the ship ever sank: "I have written previously about the very distressing, by which I mean ‘high-larious’, legal woes of National Review which is being sued for letting contributor Mark Steyn defame climate scientist Michael Mann for comparing him to child molester Jerry Sandusky on the internet pages of NRO....
Rand Simberg... attacking Mann’s research and, trying to be topical, referenced the fact that he teaches at Penn State as the basis for an oh-so-clever PSU Michael Mann = Penn State football coach/kid rapist Jerry Sandusky analogy.... Mark Steyn... LOL’d and repeated.... When Mann protested, CEI backed down and deleted the offending lines but not the rest of the post.... National Review Editor Rich Lowry... under the impression that he was William F. Badass Jr.... told Mann and his attorneys to pound sand.