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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (March 17, 2019)

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  1. Jason Furman: Review of Kim Clausing: "Open: The Progressive Case for Free Trade, Immigration, and Global Capital": "If I had to assign policymakers one up-to-date guide to the latest economic policy issues on taxes and trade it would be this one...

  2. Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman: World Inequality Report 2018: "The World Inequality Lab seeks to fill a democratic gap...

  3. This Federal Reserve interest-raising cycle: not just an ex-post but an ex-ante mistake: Adam Ozimek and Michael Ferlez: The Fed’s Mistake: "The Fed made a numerically significant error in underestimating the amount of labor market slack...

  4. Wikipedia: Philip Auerswald

  5. Langston Hughes: Let America Be America Again

  6. Wikipedia: Metric

  7. Dmitry Grozoubinski: Dmitry's Guide To Writing A No-Deal Is Project Fear Article: "Are you a Tory Lord who once had to share a cab with a Hungarian? An Oxbridge chancer who wants to be on telly? Just write an article about No-Deal being 'Project Fear.' How? This guide can help!...

  8. Dan O'Sullivan: Pigs (A Million Different Ones): "The internet is now the world’s largest subduction zone, where an endless column of young, mostly white males are overtaken and crushed by the unstoppable force of far-right extremism. Violent misogyny, Islamophobia, anti-Semitism, gay-bashing, anti-black racism-you name it, you can find it, in ever more plentiful amounts online. The biggest tech platforms you can name-Facebook, Google, YouTube, Twitter, Reddit-serve up this kind of poison on an industrial scale, mushrooming and expanding at a rate that makes catching up with the spread almost impossible. The early neo-Nazi webforum Stormfront is on life support, largely because there is no need for the far-right to stay in an online cul-de-sac.... We as a society are going to be living with the effects of this radicalization for the rest of our lives...

  9. Maria Lawton: Bacalhau à Gomes Sà

  10. Dan Murphy: The Entire Economy is Fyre Festival.: "Izabella Kaminska: 'Search LinkedIn.... 41 results for 'chief future officer', 44 for 'chief joy officer', 52 for 'chief happiness officer', 63 for 'chief thinking officer', 170 for a 'chief vision officer', 197 futurists and 354 futurologists...' [155 Retweets, 363 Links] Does this many likes and retweets make me an influencer, an evangelist, or a thought leader?...

  11. Karl Rodbertus (1850): Overproduction and Crises

  12. The Points Guy: JetBlue Mint From New York to San Francisco

  13. Impossible Burger

  14. Wikipedia: Jack o' Kent

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (March 13, 2019)

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  1. Marne Levine: How Did I Get Here?

  2. Sean Illing: "Fascism: a Warning" from Madeleine Albright

  3. Neil Cummins: The Missing English Middle Class: Evidence From 60 Million Death And Probate Records: "Despite the great equalisation of wealth over the 20th century, most English have no significant wealth at death...

  4. David H. Autor: Work of the Past, Work of the Future: "A disproportionate polarization... shunting non-college workers out of specialized middle-skill occupations into low-wage occupations... diminishing the set of non-college workers that hold middle-skill jobs in high-wage cities... attenuating... the steep urban wage premium for non-college workers...

  5. Paul Krugman (2015): On Econoheroes: "Look at hits on Google News. If you put in “mankiw economy” you get about 5200 hits, many of them involving debates at the recent economics meetings. If you put in “stephen moore economy” you get 65,700 hits. If you put in “stiglitz economy” you get 43,800. I see this as a real asymmetry...

  6. Sanjiv Das, Kris Mitchener, and Angela Vossmeyer: Bank Networks and Systemic Risk in the Great Depression: "The Global Crisis brought attention to how connections among financial institutions may make systems more prone to crises. Turning to a major financial crisis from the past, this column uses data from the Great Depression to study risk in the commercial banking network leading up to the crisis and how the network structure influenced the outcomes. It demonstrates that when the distribution of risk is more concentrated at the top of the system, as it was in 1929, fragility and the propensity for risk to spread increases...

  7. Alicia Sasser Modestino: Is the "Skills Gap" ReaL?: "Since the Great Recession, employers have cited a skills gap in which workers lack the education and experience needed to fill vacant jobs. While job requirements increased for many openings during the recession, the inverse has happened as the labor market has recovered...

  8. Lee Harris: Murderbot Will Return in… "Network Effect". A Full Novel by Martha Wells

  9. Matthew Yglesias: Great Tariff Debate of 1888: Trump’s Love of the McKinley Tariff: "Trump’s side won, and it was an unpopular disaster...

  10. Karl Smith: [Why Centrists Have to Become More Partisan(https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-03-11/why-centrists-have-to-become-more-partisan): "In America’s polarized political climate, credibility within the party is a prerequisite for getting anything done...

  11. James Fallows: ET302: Is the Boeing 737 Max 8 to Blame?: "No one knows for sure—but here is where experts will be looking for clues...

  12. Herman Melville: Moby-Dick: "Ahab: 'Aye, aye! and I’ll chase him round Good Hope, and round the Horn, and round the Norway Maelstrom, and round perdition’s flames before I give him up. And this is what ye have shipped for, men! to chase that white whale on both sides of land, and over all sides of earth, till he spouts black blood and rolls fin out. What say ye, men, will ye splice hands on it, now? I think ye do look brave'...

  13. Ernst Renan: What Is a Nation?: "The essence of a nation is that all of its individual members have a great deal in common and also that they have forgotten many things. No French citizen knows whether he is a Burgund, an Alain, a Taifala, or a Visigoth. Every French citizen has forgotten St. Bartholomew’s Day and the thirteenth-century massacres in the Midi...

  14. Wikipedia: Cauchy Distribution

  15. Anna Mikusheva: Weak Instrumental Variables

  16. Max Roser and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina: Global Extreme Poverty

  17. Isaiah Andrews and James H. Stock: Weak Instruments and What to Do About Them

  18. Philip Auerswald: The Code Economy: A 40000-Year History

  19. Absolute lunacy from a politician who is the essence of a twit: Nigel Farage: The Betrayal of Brexit Is One of the Most Shameful Chapters in Our Country’s History: "498 MPs voted to trigger Article 50.... They all knew that the consequence was that the UK would leave the EU on March 29 2019, with or without a deal. And yet now they have decided to claim the vote was meaningless.... We are living through one of the most shameful chapters in our country’s history...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (March 11, 2019)

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  1. KJV: John 5: "Now there is at Jerusalem by the sheep market a pool, which is called in the Hebrew tongue Bethesda, having five porches. In these lay a great multitude of impotent folk, of blind, halt, withered, waiting for the moving of the water. For an angel went down at a certain season into the pool, and troubled the water: whosoever then first after the troubling of the water stepped in was made whole of whatsoever disease he had...

  2. Edward Luce: Ivanka Trump and the Rise of the Stepford Daughter: "The first daughter’s drive to improve the skills of American workers mainly involves photo-ops. Washington’s most surreal event this week—an absurdly high bar—was Ivanka Trump’s roll-out of her workforce development council. It opened with her father calling the chief executive of America’s largest smartphone company 'Tim Apple'. Tim Cook barely flinched...

  3. Madeline Peltz: Tucker Carlson's interviews on 'Bubba The Love Sponge'...

  4. Benjamin Dreyer: Jeanine Pirro was permanently banned from Leonard’s of Great Neck after she tried to walk out with a table floral arrangement from a bat mitzvah she wasn’t even attending. So grain of salt on the constitutional scholarship...

  5. The Vela: A Leisurely Extinction

  6. Paul N. Van de Water: [More Evidence of Post-ACA Slowdown in Health Care Spending(https://www.cbpp.org/blog/more-evidence-of-post-aca-slowdown-in-health-care-spending): "In early 2010 we projected that federal debt would reach 289 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2048; we now project 113 percent of GDP. Over half of that improvement stems from lower health care costs; the rest largely reflects lower interest rates. Although health care costs remain a major driver of future increases in federal spending, that shouldn’t obscure how much their projected costs have fallen in recent years...

  7. Nyum Bai: Our Menu —

  8. August (1) Five: Menu

  9. Marica Restaurant: Current Food & Drink Offerings

  10. Pete Buttigieg: On Pence's support of Trump: "How could he allow himself to become the cheerleader of the porn star presidency. Is it that he stopped believing in scripture when he started believing in Donald Trump?...

  11. Tobias S. Buckell: What Tools Does a Professional Fiction Writer Use?

  12. Microeconomic Insights: About: "Microeconomic Insights is a home for accessible summaries of high quality microeconomic research which informs the public about microeconomic issues that are, or should be, in the public’s eye...

  13. Emma Hyman

  14. KJV: Song of Moses and Miriam

  15. Wikipedia: Al Hunt

  16. Alfred, Lord Tennyson: Ulysses: "Tho' much is taken, much abides; and tho'/We are not now that strength which in old days/Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (March 10, 2019)

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  1. John Quiggin: Monopoly: Too Big to Ignore: "Two hundred years after the birth of Karl Marx and fifty years after the last Western upsurge of revolutionary ferment in 1968, the term 'monopoly capitalism' might seem like a relic of outmoded enthusiasms. But economists are increasingly coming to the view that monopolies, and associated market failures, have never been a bigger problem...

  2. Mary Beard: The Public Voice of Women: "As Homer has it, an integral part of growing up, as a man, is learning to take control of public utterance and to silence the female of the species.... Telemachus... says ‘speech’ is ‘men’s business’... authoritative public speech (not the kind of chatting, prattling or gossip that anyone–women included, or especially women–could do)...

  3. Fear of Reese Witherspoon Look-Alikes on the Pill

  4. Who Will Donald Trump Turn Out To Be?: "We have very little indication of what policies Donald Trump will try to follow or even what kind of president he will be. The U.S. press corps did an extraordinarily execrable job in covering the rise of Trump—even worse than it usually does. Even the most sophisticated of audiences—those interested in asset prices and how they are affected by government policies—have very little insight into Trump's views or those of his key associates...

  5. Yes, it is time for the center-left to pass the baton. But what does that mean, concretely, for policies? Paul Krugman gives his opinion: Paul Krugman: "A few thoughts inspired by @delong's 'Brad is really saying two things...

  6. Noah Smith: Book Review: The Revolt of the Public, by Martin Gurri: "A new framework... to... think about the political chaos...

  7. Sam Bowles (2011): Is Liberal Society a Parasite on Tradition?: "Markets and other liberal institutions... enhance rather than erode... values...

  8. CPPC: Senate Finance Committee Grills Drug Executives on Rising Prices, Criticize Them for Terrible Practices: "Grassley... Wyden... bipartisan investigation into the high price of insulin...

  9. Chye-Ching Huang: Fundamentally Flawed 2017 Tax Law Largely Leaves Low- and Moderate-Income Americans Behind: "A restructuring... can fix these flaws...

  10. Andrei Markevich: Russia in the Great War: Mobilisation, Grain, and Revolutio: "The economics and politics of the Russian grain and labour markets.... It was impossible simultaneously to mobilise 15 million males into the Russian army, procure the grain to feed them as soldiers, and avoid revolution...

  11. Wikipedia: Posset: "A posset (also historically spelled poshote, poshotte) was originally a popular British hot drink made of milk curdled with wine or ale, often spiced, which was often used as a remedy...

  12. Wikipedia: IBM 1620 - : "Many in the user community recall the 1620 being referred to as CADET, jokingly meaning 'Can't Add, Doesn't Even Try', referring to the use of addition tables in memory rather than dedicated addition circuitry.... The internal code name CADET was selected for the machine. One of the developers says that this stood for 'Computer with ADvanced Economic Technology', however others recall it as simply being one half of 'SPACE-CADET', where SPACE was the internal code name of the IBM 1401 machine, also then under development...

  13. Wikipedia: Charles, Duke of Orléans: "24 November 1394 – 5 January 1465: Now remembered as an accomplished medieval poet owing to the more than five hundred extant poems he produced, written in both French and English, during his 25 years spent as a prisoner of war and after his return to France...

  14. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Automation Is a Good Thing: "In a talk at SXSW, the New York Congresswoman notes that automation is a net positive when the government offers a social safety net...

  15. Marcy Wheeler: @emptywheel: "There's a belief among Russian denialists that bc there's not a Tower in Moscow w/Trump's name on it, the conspiracy didn't happen. That's now how conspiracy law works...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (March 8, 2019)

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  1. Dana Goldstein: What’s a Flâneuse?

  2. Robert E. Scott: Record U.S. Trade Deficit in 2018 Reflects Failure of Trump’s Trade Policies

  3. Wikipedia: Confidence and Supply

  4. Gmail Help: Search Operators You Can Use with Gmail

  5. Michael Kades testified on Capitol Hill on Thursday March 7: Michael Kades: To Combat Rising U.S. Prescription Drug Prices, Let’s Try Competition

  6. Cathy Young: Who’s Afraid of The Bulwark?: "I don’t know what The Bulwark’s endgame is, but right now, it’s among a deplorably small number of outlets that get high marks for intellectual diversity and integrity...

  7. Wikipedia: Genetic History of the British Isles

  8. Publius Baebius Italicus: Ilias Latina

  9. Marcos Zapata: Guinea Pig Last Supper: "In this historic cathedral in the heart of Cusco, Peru, hangs a one-of-a kind religious and cultural painting that depicts a very unordinary twist on an otherwise common image... https://delong.typepad.com/.a/6a00e551f0800388340240a490f815200b-pi

  10. Bill Black and Mark Steiner: Clinton-Era Official Says Left Should Lead Following Center-Right Failures

  11. Ursula Vernon: An Unexpected Honor,: "Now, you’re probably all asking what whalefall has to do with awards ceremonies, or science fiction novelettes, and the answer is: absolutely nothing. But how often do I get to tell an audience this size about whalefall? So, thanks to my publishers, my husband Kevin, and thank you all. I’m glad you liked my story. Y’all have a good night...

  12. WebPlotDigitizer: Extract Data from Plots, Images, and Maps

  13. Barry Rice: The Carnivorous Plant FAQ: "Q: How did the Venus flytrap get its name? A: Heh heh heh. Heh heh heh heh. Heh heh heh heh...

  14. Rudyard Kipling.: The Merchantmen

  15. Paolo Gerbaudo: The Age of the Hyperleader: When Political Leadership Meets Social Media Celebrity: "In an era of profound suspicion towards party bureaucracies, digital media has delivered a new type of politician.... Political influence is now measured in part through social media metrics: likes, followers, and shares. A politician’s Twitter prowess–or lack thereof–can make or break a political career...

  16. Erik Tarloff: The Woman in Black https://books.google.com/books?isbn=1947856979

  17. Doug Jones: Nature Red in Tooth and Claw: "339-321 million years ago...

  18. Doug Jones: Devonian Days: "401-380 million years ago... the Devonian: Forests are spreading. The first tree, Wattieza, is kin to ferns and horsetails. It stands 10 meters tall. No leaves yet, just fronds. The first forests will absorb carbon dioxide, and cool the planet. Life is moving onto land... the 'fishapod' discovered in 2006... with both lungs and gills...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (March 6, 2019)

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  • The Weak Instruments Problem: "This is the weak instruments problem. As you get more and more data, wz/vz is not heading for zero, and even if it were your estimated βIV0 is not headed for β, but is rather headed for β+δ...

  • I Concede: The Haters and the Trolls and the Botnets of Macedonia Have Rendered Their Verdict, and I Accept It: @AustanGoolsbee has won,_ and will represent Neoliberal Economic Academia in the next round of the 2019 Chief Neoliberal Shill Twitter Challenge. Austan Goolsbee will face off against noted ex-academic and San Francisco flaneur @Noahpinion in the semifinals of the meetup region...

  • Can I pull it out at the last minute?: I'm still behind 53-47, in spite of a million-twitter-impression day yesterday: Neoliberal: @AustanGoolsbee (5) Former CEA Chair and Professor at U Chicago vs. @delong (4) Economic Historian at Berkeley...


  1. Greg Sargent: A Centrist Democrat Explains Why It’s Time to Give The Left a Chance

  2. Assiah: "Also known as Olam Asiyah, עוֹלָם עֲשִׂיָה in Hebrew, literally "the World of Action") is the last of the four spiritual worlds of the Kabbalah —Atziluth, Beriah, Yetzirah, 'Asiyah—based on the passage in Isaiah 43:7...

  3. Wikipedia: Almost Famous: "Almost Famous is a 2000 American comedy-drama film written and directed by Cameron Crowe and starring Billy Crudup, Frances McDormand, Kate Hudson, and Patrick Fugit. It tells the story of a teenage journalist writing for Rolling Stone in the early 1970s, his touring with the fictitious rock band Stillwater, and his efforts to get his first cover story published... four Academy Awards nominations, including a win for Best Original Screenplay... 2001 Grammy Award for Best Compilation Soundtrack Album.... Roger Ebert hailed it the best film of the year as well as the ninth-best film of the 2000s. It also won two Golden Globe Awards, for Best Motion Picture–Musical or Comedy and Best Supporting Actress–Motion Picture (Hudson). In a 2016 international poll conducted by BBC, Almost Famous was ranked the 79th greatest film since 2000...

  4. KJV: Isaiah 6: "In the year that king Uzziah died I saw also the Lord sitting upon a throne, high and lifted up, and his train filled the temple. Above it stood the seraphims: each one had six wings; with twain he covered his face, and with twain he covered his feet, and with twain he did fly. And one cried unto another, and said, "Holy, holy, holy, is the Lord of hosts: the whole earth is full of his glory". And the posts of the door moved at the voice of him that cried, and the house was filled with smoke. Then said I, "Woe is me! for I am undone; because I am a man of unclean lips, and I dwell in the midst of a people of unclean lips: for mine eyes have seen the King, the Lord of hosts". Then flew one of the seraphims unto me, having a live coal in his hand, which he had taken with the tongs from off the altar: And he laid it upon my mouth, and said, "Lo, this hath touched thy lips; and thine iniquity is taken away, and thy sin purged". Also I heard the voice of the Lord, saying, "Whom shall I send, and who will go for us?" Then said I, "Here am I; send me"...

  5. KJV: Luke 10:25: "And, behold, a certain lawyer stood up, and tempted him, saying, Master, what shall I do to inherit eternal life?...

  6. hilzoy: "If Hans von Spakovsky says it, then surely it must be true! (Dissolves in giggles): 'Hans Von Spakovsky, “I haven’t seen any evidence of actual violations of the law, which is usually a basis before you start an investigation. Adam Schiff seems to be copying Joseph McCarthy in wanting to open up investigations when they don’t have any evidence of wrongdoing”...'

  7. SPECIES: "This is my personal favorite animal video of all time...

  8. Paul Waldmann: The Dishonest Smearing of Ilhan Omar: "this punishment of criticism of Israel is exactly what the freshman congresswoman was complaining about, and has on multiple occasions. The fact that no one seems to acknowledge that this is her complaint shows how spectacularly disingenuous Omar’s critics are being...

  9. Mark Milian: @markmilian: "Coinbase says it accidentally hired a group of mercenaries, who sold cyberweapons to Saudi Arabia and Sudan, and is now firing them...

  10. Robert Reich: @RBReich: "In less than a week, we've learned that the President of the United States: --Tried to block a merger to punish a news outlet --Knew about the release of illegally obtained email --Paid off a mistress, violating election law --Demanded security clearance for a family member...

  11. Bret Stephens's claims that although "people" do, he would never never use an official position to retaliate against someone who had annoyed him are worth what you think they are: Laura McGann: NYT Columnist Bret Stephens Inadvertently Explains Why Women Don’t Report Sexual Harassment...

  12. Sean Illing: Mortal Republic: Edward Watts on what America can learn from Rome’s collapse: "The Roman republic destroyed itself. Are we on a similar path?...

  13. Anna Mikusheva: What Are Weak Instruments?

  14. Charles Moore: Will the Daily Mail’s volte-face on Brexit make the slightest difference? | The Spectator: "My guess is that Mail readers will find it less fun hating the European Research Group than the ‘metropolitan liberal elite’, but the traditional key to tabloid success is the Glenda Slagg principle of kicking someone, then praising them, then kicking them all over again. My only concern for the Mail’s future lies in the fact that Geordie Greig comes from the officer class. This violates ancient Mail rules by which the Harmsworth family are remote, regal figures beloved by their serfs, and the actual dirty work is done by foul-mouthed NCOs who never leave the office. Geordie goes out to dinner, has many friends, enjoys life, and wishes to win the respect of peers (in both senses of that word). He is a talented journalist, but these are severe handicaps to running Associated’s charnel-house...

  15. Alan J. Auerbach, Martin N. Baily, Dean Baker, Robert J. Barro, Ben S. Bernanke, Jared Bernstein, Alan S. Blinder, Michael J. Boskin, Arthur C. Brooks, John H. Cochrane, Karen Dynan, Janice Eberly, Douglas W. Elmendorf, Martin S. Feldstein, Jason Furman, William G. Gale, Ted Gayer, Austan D. Goolsbee, Alan Greenspan, Robert E. Hall, Douglas J. Holtz-Eakin, R. Glenn Hubbard, Randall S. Kroszner, Alan B. Krueger, Edward P. Lazear, Lawrence Lindsey, N. Gregory Mankiw, Donald B. Marron, Peter R. Orszag, Adam S. Posen, James Michael Poterba, Christina D. Romer, Harvey S. Rosen, Cecilia Elena Rouse, Jay C. Shambaugh, Robert J. Shapiro, Betsey Stevenson, James H. Stock, Michael R. Strain, Phillip Swagel, John B. Taylor, Laura D. Tyson, Justin Wolfers, and Mark M. Zandi: Letter in Support of the Nomination of Kevin Hassett to be Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers: "As economists we all agree that the Nation would be well served if Kevin Hassett is confirmed as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (March 5, 2019)

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  1. Broadway World: Review Roundup: Berkeley Rep's "Metamorphoses"

  2. Scott McGreal: DMT, Aliens, and Reality: "Dimethyltryptamine (DMT) is a naturally occurring psychedelic drug... striking for the brevity and intensity of its effects. When smoked, for example, hallucinogenic effects begin almost immediately and resolve within 30 minutes.... One of the most remarkable features of the DMT experience is the frequency with which users encounter non-human intelligences, often resembling aliens. Even more remarkably, some users come away from these encounters convinced that these entities are somehow real (Strassman, 2001). The psychological aspects of such experiences have not yet been adequately explored by scientific researchers...

  3. Sean Carroll: Mindscape Podcast

  4. Steering by the Socialist Idols in the Heavens Leads Us to Sail Not Towards but Away from the Shores of Utopia: (Early) Monday Corey Robin Smackdown

  5. Robert Waldmann: MMT: "I am kicking myself for deciding to read the article to find if it is as horrible as he asserts. I think it is...

  6. Tom Nichols: The (New) Screwtape Letters: "A view of our political foibles from a highly placed assistant to Our Father Below...

  7. Samuel Bowles, Alan Kirman, and Rajiv Sethi: Friedrich Hayek and the Market Algorithm

  8. Rage Against the Machine: Testify

  9. Jane Coaston: Jacob Wohl, Explained: "Why a failed teen hedge fund manager showed up at CPAC to hold a press conference on a conspiracy theory...

  10. FSB: Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2018 - Financial Stability Board: "The Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2018 presents the results of the FSB’s annual monitoring exercise to assess global trends and risks from non-bank financial intermediation. The annual monitoring exercise is part of the FSB’s policy work to enhance the resilience of non-bank financial intermediation. It focuses on those parts of non-bank financial intermediation that perform economic functions which may give rise to bank-like financial stability risks (i.e. the narrow measure of non-bank financial intermediation)...

  11. Irene M. Pepperberg (2002): Cognitive and Communicative Abilities of Grey Parrots

  12. Matthew Yglesias: Allen Weisselberg: House Democrats’ Next Target: "The Trump Organization CFO knows things President Trump would prefer kept secret.

  13. (December 2012): Back When I Feared the Bond-Market Vigilantes: Maundering Old-Timer Reminiscence Weblogging: "There had been an attack—or, rather, not an attack but rather bond-market vigilantes visible on the horizon and gunshots in the air—earlier.... Throughout 1992 there was a 4%-point gap between the 3-Month Treasury rate and the 10-Year Treasury rate. Those of us in the Clinton-administration-to-be read this as market expectations that the uncontrolled federal budget deficit would lead people to expect higher inflation and the Federal Reserve would then feel itself forced to raise short-term interest rates far and fast.... I think we were right then to fear and take steps to ward off the bond-market vigilantes—or perhaps only right to fear and take steps to ward off any Federal Reserve decision that it needed to fear and take steps to deal with bond-market vigilantes. In any event, our policies were right. But that was then, with a 4%-point gap between 10-Yr and 3-Mo Treasury yields. Today we only have a 1.6%-point gap between 10-Yr and 3-Mo Treasury yields. 1.6% < 4%...

  14. Ed Kilgore: A New Role for Democratic Centrists: Helping the Left Win: "Democratic centrists need to accept that the Donkey’s moving in a new direction now; fighting it by demonizing the left just makes the calamitous prospect of a second Trump term more likely. And perhaps a new synthesis of left and center-left thinking on politics and policy can emerge, once the scourge of today’s Republicanism is overcome. It’s a more productive occupation than endlessly relitigating the 2016 election...

  15. Teddy Roosevelt: "We Have Traveled Far...": How to Look on Our Predecessors with Charity and Justice: “We have traveled far...“ said Teddy Roosevelt, looking back at the Puritans. And we today, looking back at Teddy Roosevelt, have reason to say the same thing. We can hope that, were Teddy with us today and were he given an opportunity for sober reflection and consideration, he would agree...

  16. William Hogeland: “The National Review,” Racist Writing, and the Legacy of William F. Buckley, Jr. – William Hogeland: "Writing in 1957, Buckley insisted that whites in the South were 'entitled to take such measures as are necessary to prevail, politically and culturally, where they do not prevail numerically'...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (March 1, 2019)

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Note to Self: Neoliberal: The 2019 Neoliberal Shill Bracket: "The round of 64 polls will be published tomorrow and will remain up for 48 hours. Each round will have its own thread with all the polls in it. There will be a 24 hour cool off period between rounds for tasteful smack talk...


  1. Jeanne Reames: Hephaistion Philalexandros: in Praise of That Guy behind the Throne

  2. Wikipedia: Folie à Deux

  3. David Bandurski: The Dawn of the Little Red Phone | China Media Project

  4. Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Nowcasting Report

  5. Matt O'Brien: The Important Way the 2008 Crisis Was Worse than the Great Depression

  6. Jacob Levy: The Defense of Liberty Can’t Do Without Identity Politics | Democracy for Republicans | Two Hundred Years of the Liberty of the Moderns | Why I Am Not a Moderate

  7. Spencer Strub

  8. Dylan Riley

  9. Anne Case: Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism

  10. The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Science: This 'what if we took this equation seriously?' factor... is... the spookiest thing.... Take the h in Max Planck's equation seriously, and you have the quantum principle—something that was not in Planck's brain when he wrote the equation down. Take seriously the symmetry in Maxwell's equations between the force generated when you move a magnet near a wire and the force and the force generated when you move a wire near a magnet, and you have Special Relativity—something that was not in Maxwell's brain when he wrote down the equation.Take Newton's gravitational force law's equivalence between inertial and gravitational mass seriously and you have General Relativity—something never in Newton's mind. And take the mathematical pathology at r = 2M in the Schwarzchild metric for the space-timemetric around a point mass seriously, and you have event horizons—and black holes...

  11. Sean Carroll (2009): Boltzmann's Universe: "I wanted to emphasize something Dennis says quite explicitly, but (from experience) I know that people tend to jump right past in their enthusiasm: 'Nobody in the field believes that this is the way things really work, however.' The point about Boltzmann’s Brains is not that they are a fascinating prediction of an exciting new picture of the multiverse. On the contrary, the point is that they constitute a reductio ad absurdum that is meant to show the silliness of a certain kind of cosmology...

  12. Charlie Stross (2008): : The Fermi Paradox Revisited; Random Despatches from the Front Line

  13. Theodor W. Adorno and Max Horkheimer (): _[Dialectic of Enlightenment https://books.google.com/books?isbn=1859841546

  14. Dylan Riley: The Third Reich as Rogue Regime Adam Tooze’s "Wages of Destruction"

  15. Olivier Blanchard: Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (February 28, 2019)

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  1. Thomas Jefferson: A Chronology of His Thoughts: "From candlelight to early bedtime, I read...

  2. Max Roser: Light

  3. Erik Loomis: "This Day in Labor History: February 27, 1869: The great workplace safety reformer Alice Hamilton is born. Let's talk about her amazing work and what workers faced in the early 20th century...

  4. Thomas Jefferson: VI. Salary Account of the Department of State, [1 April 1791]

  5. Measuring Worth

  6. *The First Foot Guards Reenactment Group: The Cost of Living: "London, mid 1700s...

  7. William Savage: The Cost of 18th-Century Lighting

  8. Karl Marx (1853): The Future Results of British Rule in India: "All the English bourgeoisie may be forced to do will neither emancipate nor materially mend the social condition of the mass of the people, depending not only on the development of the productive powers, but on their appropriation by the people. But what they will not fail to do is to lay down the material premises for both. Has the bourgeoisie ever done more? Has it ever effected a progress without dragging individuals and people through blood and dirt, through misery and degradation?...

  9. Thomas Jefferson: Statement of Debts, Expenses, and Income, 1 April 1823

  10. Branko Milanovic, Peter H. Lindert and Jeffrey G. Williamson (2011): Pre-Industrial Inequality

  11. Wikipedia: Pareto Distribution

  12. Dev Patel, Justin Sandefur, and Arvind Subramanian: Everything You Know about Cross-Country Convergence Is (Now) Wrong | PIIE

  13. David Roberts: Green New Deal Critics Are Missing The Bigger Picture: "Green New Deal critics are missing the bigger picture...

  14. INET: Global Commission Discusses Tech + the Future of Work in San Francisco: "The latest meeting of INET’s Commission on Global Economic Transformation addressed the impact of technological change on jobs and society—and how best to harness the power of tech...

  15. World Bank: Trouble in the Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development

  16. Joe Studwell: How Asia Works: Success and Failure In the World's Most Dynamic Region

  17. Saveur: La Louisiane Cocktail

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (February 27, 2019)

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  1. Sean Illing: "Fascism: A Warning" from Madeleine Albright: "The former secretary of state is sounding the alarm about rising fascism around the world—and in America...

  2. David Goldenberg: The Famous Photo of Chernobyl's Most Dangerous Radioactive Material Was a Selfie - Atlas Obscura: "at first glance, it’s hard to know what’s happening in this picture. A giant mushroom seems to have sprouted in a factory floor, where ghostly men in hardhats seem to be working. But there’s something undeniably eerie about the scene, for good reason. You’re looking at the largest agglomeration of one of the most toxic substances ever created: corium...

  3. Neil Irwin: How America Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Deficits and Debt: "The old rules are being rejected, among liberals and conservatives, politicians and economists...

  4. James Fallows: @jamesfallows: "If you have any experience in government, you will find these 78 seconds stupefying. And if you don’t, let me tell you: this is stupefying. (Lighthizer is right about how international trade agreements work): JM Rieger: @RiegerReport: 'TRUMP: I don’t like MOUs because they don’t mean anything. LIGHTHIZER: An MOU is a contract. TRUMP: I disagree. I think that a memorandum of understanding is not a contract to the extent that we want. CHINA’S VICE PREMIER: [Chuckles] Okay...

  5. Jason Zengerle: The Series of Historical Mistakes That Led to Trump: "Tomasky proposes a raft of reforms to get us out of the polarized mess we find ourselves in. Some, like ending partisan gerrymandering and getting rid of the Senate filibuster, are familiar. Others, like reviving 'moderate Republicanism', are probably futile. But some of his proposals—including... exchange programs... so students from rural areas spend a semester at a high school in a city, and vice versa—are both realistic and novel. Indeed, the most helpful—if sobering—point Tomasky makes is that while our current troubles created the conditions that brought us a President Trump, those troubles would exist no matter who was in the White House. And it will take much more than a new occupant to fix them...

  6. Wikipedia: The Act of Killing: "Directed by Joshua Oppenheimer and co-directed by Christine Cynn and an anonymous Indonesian.... The Act of Killing won the 2013 European Film Award for Best Documentary, the Asia Pacific Screen Award, and was nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature at the 86th Academy Awards. It also won best documentary at the 67th BAFTA awards...

  7. BWW: Review Roundup: Critics Weigh In On Berkeley Rep's Paradise Square: An American Musical

  8. Yannay Spitzer: Research Papers

  9. Yannay Spitzer: Bits and Pieces of My Work and Interests

  10. Philip Klotzbach: @philklotzbach: "Supertyphoon #Wutip has now generated the most Accumulated Cyclone Energy for any Northwest Pacific #typhoon during February on record (since 1950), breaking old record set by Nancy (1970). #SuperTyphoonWutip...

  11. Wikipedia: Supertyphoon Wutip: "Early on February 25, Wutip reached its peak intensity as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon, with maximum 10-minute sustained winds of 195 km/h (120 mph), 1-minute sustained winds of 260 km/h (160 mph), and a minimum central pressure of 915 hPa (mbar). As of 12:00 UTC on February 25, Typhoon Wutip is located near 14.2°N 140.1°E, also about 280 nautical miles (520 km; 320 mi) north-northeast of Yap. Maximum 10-minute sustained winds are at 105 knots (195 km/h; 120 mph), while maximum 1-minute sustained winds are at 130 knots (240 km/h; 150 mph), with gusts up to 150 knots (280 km/h; 175 mph)...

  12. Shushman Choudhury, Michelle Lee, and Andrey Kurenkov: In Favor of Developing Ethical Best Practices in AI Research

  13. Miniver Cheevy: DeLong's Principles Of Neoliberalism

  14. No s---: Economist: How Welfare Reform Has Had a Negative Effect on the Children of Single Mothers: "Any short-term gains from welfare reform may have come at a cost to the next generation, leading to more of the type of behaviour associated with a “culture of poverty” that the reform was meant to combat...

  15. Simon Potter: Models Only Get You So Far: "My remarks will focus on some insights from the book Superforecasting by... Tetlock and... Gardner.... What are some of the underlying reasons individuals and organizations fail to predict? What should we change about our mindsets and practices to improve the chances that we 'notice it' next time, whenever that may be?... Be humble, always question, listen to alternative views, and—very comfortingly for Bayesians like me—always express your forecast as a distribution rather than a point forecast, and crucially update that forecast when new information arrives. Further, constantly assess why forecasts worked and didn't work...

  16. Wikipedia: The Hunters of Kentucky

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (February 23, 2019)

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  1. Against Alasdair Macintyre's "After Virtue"...: Alasdair Macintyre, at least in his _After Virtue _mode, believes that good civilizations are ones with moral consensus led by prophets, rather than ones with moral confusion managed by managers... Trotskys (less preferred) or St. Benedicts (more preferred), but... [not] managerial Keyneses.... Trotsky says that History speaking through Marx and him knows how to build a Communist utopia. What is a Communist utopia? It is a society... well-fed, well-clothed, well-housed, and well-entertained.... We can see that Keynes was totally correct in wanting to reduce the influence of a Trotsky in the public square, because a Trotsky’s ideas about good organization of the economy were seen immediately by Keynes as, and turned out to be a horrible disaster, even from the perspective of Trotsky’s values—especially from the perspective of Trotsky’s values...

  2. Òscar Jordà, Chitra Marti, Fernanda Nechio, and Eric Tallman: Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve: "The increased importance of inflation expectations exposes new risks to standard monetary policy practice. In particular, it suggests that conducting policy consistently to keep expectations well-anchored to the target is key to avoiding large swings in inflation. When policy is set consistently, the public discounts deviations of the unemployment rate from its natural rate and of inflation from its target as transitory...

  3. David Leonhardt: New York Did Us All a Favor by Standing Up to Amazon - The New York Times: "Yes, Amazon’s departure will modestly hurt the city’s economy. But it’s also a victory against bad economic policy...

  4. Joe Heim: Acts of Extreme Vandalism by Students Stun Gonzaga College High School

  5. Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on November 1–2, 2011

  6. TBPInvictus (2012): Open Mouth, Insert Foot: Going Viral?: "I had barely finished reading Niall Ferguson’s takedown of President Obama when a flood of takedowns of Mr. Ferguson started hitting the web. This post, then, will not be about his Newsweek piece, but instead about his recent Bloomberg TV interview with Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen. And, in particular, one very specific part of that interview where Ferguson makes what is well beyond what I could even charitably refer to as a rookie mistake...

  7. Izabella Kaminska: Stuff Elon Says: "Elon Musk is often dubbed a genius. And yet... if the following statement Musk made during the Tesla Q4 earnings call is anything to go by, he has a habit of stating the obvious and thinking it sounds deeply profound and insightful: 'The demand for-the demand for Model 3 is insanely high. The inhibitor is affordability. It's just like people literally don't have the money to buy the car. It's got nothing to do with desire. They just don't have enough money in their bank account. If the car can be made more affordable, the demand is extraordinary...' So, to help introduce Elon to the concept of how demand and supply interacts with price we thought we'd take the above quote and adapt it according to various economic scenarios in classic econ text book style...

  8. Cheddar: How Focus Music Hacks Your Brain

  9. Greg Farrell: Paul Manafort Could Face New York Charges If Trump Pardons Him: "Cy Vance has been investigating ex-Trump aide since 2017. District Attorney sees way to avoid double jeopardy protection...

  10. Maya Gurantz: Kompromat: Or, Revelations from the Unpublished Portions of Andrea Manafort’s Hacked Texts - Los Angeles Review of Books

  11. Pyeong Chang Tofu House: Menus

  12. Now compiling and sending out fewer links than in the past, but still by far the best sorter and selector of what is interesting in economics: Mark Thoma: Economist's View: Links (2/19/19)

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (February 21, 2019)

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  • Comment of the Day: Graydon: "I am pretty sure that the theoretical case—that there's secure encryption—has been, in practical terms, backdoored out of existence at the hardware level. It is difficult to find out, one way or the other. So it's 'no one is secure' AND 'no one knows how secure they're not against which adversary' AND 'humans aren't actually generally capable of doing secure things', all together... #commentoftheday #riseoftherobots

  • Comment of the Day: JEC: "I think we should place more emphasis on the fact that the resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis depended critically on the asymmetry between the American and Soviet political systems. A win-win outcome was possible only because Kennedy needed to 'win' in public, but could 'lose' in secret, while Khrushchev could tolerate a public 'loss' provided he could show CPSU insiders a secret 'win'. As a side note, I think this piece officially qualifies Niall as the 'Eugene Fama of historians', someone who's public polemic demonstrates a deep and profound ignorance of the body of knowledge created by his own discipline. Seriously, the Cuban Missile Crisis has been the subject of intense historical research since the collapse of the Soviet Union, approximately none of which supports Ferguson's 'take'... #commentoftheday #security #gametheory


  1. Mesa Verde National Park

  2. Meteor Crater

  3. *Lynn Schooler * (2005): The Last Shot: The Incredible Story of the C.S.S. Shenandoah and the True Conclusion of the American Civil War https://books.google.com/books?isbn=0060523336

  4. Roger Miller (1965): King of The Road

  5. Wikipedia: Xiaolongbao

  6. Serious Eats: Gong Bao Ji Ding

  7. Wikipedia: Lapsang Souchong

  8. Michael O'Hare: Do Professors Care Whether College Students Are Actually Learning?: "What we need is not a cheap, lazy way to pretend we are improving our teaching, but a real quality assurance program that a Google or Toyota manager, for example, would recognize as such.... Are you a student, paying through the nose with your time and money for the best possible education?... If you don’t get good answers, recruit your classmates to go in the quad with pitchforks and torches...

  9. Wikipedia: Queen

  10. Bruce Schneier: There's No Good Reason to Trust Blockchain Technology | WIRED: "What blockchain does is shift some of the trust in people and institutions to trust in technology. You need to trust the cryptography, the protocols, the software, the computers and the network. And you need to trust them absolutely, because they’re often single points of failure. When that trust turns out to be misplaced, there is no recourse...

  11. Pottery Barn: Cameron Square Arm Upholstered Sofa with Reversible Chaise Sectional

  12. Wikipedia: Electrical Telegraph

  13. Menzie Chinn: Industrial and Manufacturing Production Decline: Whence the Business Cycle?: "The advance and second release of GDP will be releaseed (as an “initial” release) on February 28. Until then, keep on guessing!...

  14. Temi | Trint | Rev

  15. The Mediterranean Dish: Mediterranean Pan Seared Sea Bass Recipe

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (February 18, 2019)

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  1. The Market: As an Institution, Its Pros, and Its Cons: People... want to enter into reciprocal gift-exchange relationships.... We devised property as a way of constructing expectations of trust.... We devised money as a substitute for trust.... And so, on the back of these human propensities... we have constructed a largely-peaceful global 7.4B-strong highly-productive societal division of labor... #berkeley #economics #marketfailure #marketsuccess #economicinstitutions 2019-02-18

  2. Modes of Market Failure: At lunch last week Richard Thaler was skeptical that I had managed to identify ten different modes of market failure. I admit that this list has a little too much of the Borges-List Nature, but I do think it holds up. What do you think?: The Market Economy: Modes of Failure: Markets can go wrong—badly wrong. They can... #berkeley #economics #marketfailure 2019-02-18

  3. Still Haunted by the Shadow of the Greater Recession... #presentations #greatrecession #macro #economicgrowth #economichistory #economics #finance #monetaryeconomics 2019-02-16

  4. Hoisted from the Archives: Note: The Ten Americans Who Did the Most to Win the Cold War: "Harry Dexter White... George Kennan... George Marshall... Arthur Vandenberg... Paul Hoffman... Dean Acheson... Harry S Truman:... Dwight D. Eisenhower... Gerald Ford... George Shultz... #hoistedfromthearchives #politics #security #history 2019-02-15


  1. I don't know about this "global middle class from 10 to 100 dollars a day" stuff. That seems much too low to me...: Homi Kharas and Kristofer Hamel: A global tipping point: Half the world is now middle class or wealthier

  2. Wikipedia: European Research Group

  3. Randy Wray: Modern Money Theory: How I Came to MMT and What I Include in MMT

  4. Wikipedia: Steven van Zandt

  5. Deepak Hegde, Kyle Herkenhoff, and Chenqi Zhu: Patent Publication and Technology Spillovers: "Invention disclosure through patents (i) increases technology spillovers at the extensive and intensive margins (ii) increases overlap between distant but related patents and decreases overlap between similar patents (iii) lowers average inventive step, originality, and scope of new patents (iv) decreases patent abandonments and (v) increases patenting...

6.Wikipedia: Valle de Bravo

  1. DIY Cookie Butter Recipe

  2. Wikipedia: Hohenzollern-Hechingen

  3. Wikipedia: House of La Fayette

  4. Wikipedia: Celestial Emporium of Benevolent Knowledge

  5. History Matters: Eight Hours for What We Will!

  6. Octavia

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (February 14, 2019)

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  1. Jill Abramson, Formerly of the New York Times, Has Both a Depraved Heart and a Social Intelligence Deficit: She thus made seven changes to Malooley's first sentence, in the process dividing it into two.... She thus made one change to Malooley's second sentence. She then left Malooley's third sentence alone. Clearly the effort of making seven discrete changes to the first sentence had exhausted her...

  2. Note to Self: Thinking About Blanchard's Presidential Address...: Blanchard's calculations of the effect of debt on welfare in his AEA Presidential Address all take the form of evaluating the welfare of a generation of economic agents young in some period t after the resolution of all period-t stochastic elements. That is a fine thing to do. That is not quite the same thing as the effect on expected well-being behind the veil of ignorance...

  3. Note to Self: All of these people are now very, very quiet: Robert J. Barro, Michael J. Boskin, John Cogan, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Glenn Hubbard, Lawrence B. Lindsey, Harvey S. Rosen, George P. Shultz and John. B. Taylor.... James C. Miller III... Barry W. Poulson... Charles W. Calomiris... Donald Luskin... 95 others... Susan Collins...

  4. Note to Self: Speaker: "We are bursting at the seams! We have more students than robots!...


  1. Jeff Yarbro: @yarbro: "The Constitution anticipates a President like this. It does not anticipate a Congress so indifferent to a President like this...

  2. Abba P. Lerner (1943): Functional Finance and the Federal Debt

  3. Patrick Iber: "I hereby donate 'Reichstag Fyre Festival' to the public domain...

  4. Alex Ward: 25th Amendment: Andrew McCabe says in 60 Minutes Interview that DOJ Discussed Option to Oust Trump: "McCabe is back with a vengeance.... Some top Trump officials feel the president isn’t up to the job...

  5. Wikipedia: 1989 murders of Jesuits in El Salvador: "Ignacio Ellacuría, S.J. Ignacio Martín-Baró, S.J. Segundo Montes, S.J. Juan Ramón Moreno, S.J. Joaquín López y López, S.J. Amando López, S.J. Elba Ramos. Celina Ramos...

  6. The Browser

  7. Michael K. Spencer: The Failure of Crypto Tribalism: "The majority of ICOs aren’t genuine companies, don’t have real products and never were intended to be sustainable business models. That’s a severe problem in ethics of these young engineers and young executives playing with Dapps and investors who are prone to fraud, hype and crypto trafficking of the worst kind-deceit...

  8. Zack Beauchamp: Watch Rep. Ilhan Omar hold Elliott Abrams, Trump Venezuela envoy, accountable - Vox: "A rare example of elite accountability...

  9. John Scalzi: Courtesy of @joshtpm, a principle henceforth to be known as "Trump's Razor": Josh Marshall: Dominance and Humiliation, No Middle Ground: "I’ve been praised in recent months for having some handle on the Trump phenomenon. The truth is a little different. Early on I realized that when it came to Trump if I figured out the stupidest possible scenario that could be reconciled with the available facts and went with it, that almost always turned out to be right. The stupider, the righter.... I just kept following that model and it kept working...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (February 12, 2019)

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  1. Hoisted from the Archives: Cosma Shalizi (2007): Those Voices Again...: : "Q: Do you ever get tired of beating that dead horse? A: It's not dead yet; that horse will keep kicking until the last person who thinks there's something to The Bell Curve is hanged in the entrails of the last Durkheimian...

  2. Note to Self: Kim Clausing: Open: The Progressive Case for Free Trade, Immigration, and Global Capital: "Monday, February 11, 2019 from 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM (PST). IRLE. 2521 Channing Way. Berkeley, CA 94720: https://books.google.com/books?isbn=0674919335: "With the winds of trade war blowing as they have not done in decades and Left and Right flirting with protectionism, Kimberly Clausing shows how a free, open economy is still the best way to advance the interests of working Americans. She offers strategies to train workers, improve tax policy, and establish a partnership between labor and business...

  3. Please Help Me Out Here!: The Charge of the Brexit Brigade: “Forward, the Brexit Brigade!” Was there a man dismayed? Not though the soldier knew Someone had blundered...

  4. It Is Saturday Morning, and Joe Weisenthal Is Trying to Start a... Symposium... on Twitter: Make mine Professor Cornelius Ampleforth’s navy-strength bathtub gin: Joe Weisenthal: @TheStalwart: "Should I do a tweetstorm on what I think mainstream Keynesians like @paulkrugman @Nouriel and @ObsoleteDogma get wrong about Bitcoin?... I think most Keynesian types see Bitcoin as a horribly inefficient medium of exchange, whose loudest advocates include many scammers, charlatans, misanthropes, and Austrian economics adherents. And tbh, this is basically all true. But...

  5. This Is Nuts. When's the Crash?: The highly-estimable FT Alphaville has long had a series: This is nuts. When's the crash?. That is my reaction to learning that Hoover Institution senior fellows are now crypto... It is not at all clear to me whether they are grifters or griftees here... I had known about John Taylor, but had thought that was a strange one-off. And now Niall Ferguson. Is anybody even pretending to have a business model other than pump-and-dump? I think the only appropriate response is here: Moon Lambo...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (February 8, 2019)

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  1. Debt Derangement Syndrome: Fresh at Project Syndicate: Standard policy economics dictates that the public sector needs to fill the gap in aggregate demand when the private sector is not spending enough. After a decade of denial, the Global North may finally be returning to economic basics...

  2. A Rant on Trump, Trade, and China...: Then, lo and behold, suddenly someone convinces trump that the TPP is the second-worst trade deal in American history—"it's almost as bad as NAFTA!"—and you switch sides: all of a sudden you are there on Trish Regan's show claiming the TPP is a horrible deal for America...

  3. Weekend Reading: : Trust and the Benefit of the Doubt: Dietz Vollrath sends us to a classic story from the late Douglas Adams.... 'This actually did happen to a real person, and the real person was me...

  4. I Want to Take a Virtual Course on the Public Sphere in the Age of Costless Electronic Reproduction. What Should I Read?

  5. Comment of the Day: Kansas Jack: A Very Nice Twitter Rant from Tom Nichols: "It isn't about anything of substance, it is about being pissed off. Period. About what? Doesn't matter.... It wasn't that it fell on deaf ears because they couldn't understand, they simply didn't care. And the more it mattered to you, the happier they were...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (February 5, 2019)

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  1. Hoisted from the Archives: "Gunpowder Empire": Should We Generalize Mark Elvin's High-Level Equilibrium Trap?: Looking forward from even as late as 1750, therefore, it is not insane to project that the Gunpowder Empire is in the natural course of events the climax socioecological state of the Sociable Language-Using East African Plains Ape. The notional quartering of farm sizes worldwide from 500 BC to 1500 had been offset by the development of maize, of double-crop wet rice, of the combination of the iron axe and the moldboard plow that could turn northern temperate forests into farms, the domestication of cotton, and the breeding of the merino sheep. People in 1500 were as well fed and clothed as they had been in 500 BC. But what would have been the next agricultural miracle technologies... to... compensate for the further quartering of farm sizes that would have been inevitable had population growth continued and human numbers topped 2 billion in 3500[?] And where would the breakthrough to steampower—or even to enough fodder to feed enough draft animals for oxen and horses to replace or even supplement human backs and thighs—to interrupt this Gunpowder-Empire climax socioecology of the Sociable Language-Using East African Plains Ape come from?...

  2. Comment of the Day: Graydon: "Anyone who can put off investing is going to do so; there's Brexit, there's 'Ok, yeah, there isn't an adult anywhere in the Trump administration', plus there's the complete lack of statistics. Uncertainty is high and rising. Incompetence has real costs...

  3. Blogging: What to Expect Here...: The purpose of this weblog is to be the best possible portal into what I am thinking, what I am reading, what I think about what I am reading, and what other smart people think about what I am reading...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (February 3, 2019)

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  1. Weekend Reading: Tren Griffin: A Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Charlie Munger about Capital Allocation: "There are two kinds of businesses: The first earns 12%, and you can take it out at the end of the year. The second earns 12%, but all the excess cash must be reinvested.... We hate that kind of business”...

  2. Note to Self: A Comment on 'Development Engineering': The economy is a decentralized societal calculating machine... in which incentives are, and "doing well" achieved by, increasing resources that produce things for which rich people have a serious Jones...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (January 31, 2019)

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  1. Yes, There Are Individual Economists Worth Paying Respect to. But Is Economics Worth Paying Respect to?: Blush. To be one of fifteen good economists name-checked by Larry Summers genuinely makes my day—nay, makes my week. But.... Yes, there are very many good economists worth listening to. But does economics as a whole have any claim to authority, or is it better for outsiders' first reaction to be to dismiss its claims as some combination of ideology on the one hand and obsequious toadying to political masters on the other?...

  2. Comment of the Day: Cervantes: Yes, There Are Individual Economists Worth Paying Respect to. But Is Economics Worth Paying Respect to?: "The introductory economics course... 1) Propound a list of assumptions which are not true; 2) Develop an elaborate theory of how the world would be were the assumptions true; 3) Forget that the assumptions are false and carry on...

  3. Commonwealth Club: Annual Economic Forecast Event (January 25, 2019): Relevant Files

  4. Some Great Past First-Year Berkeley Economic History Course Papers

  5. Note to Self: In response to EconSpark: Ben Bernanke: "How important was the financial panic as a cause of the Great Recession?": From 2005 through the end of 2007 the housing bubble breaks—and real housing investment relative to potential real GDP falls by 3.3%-points of real potential GDP. Yet there is no recession. Expenditure is smoothly switched from residential investment to exports and non-residential investment. Consumption is not noticeably weak in spite of the impact of diminished housing wealth on households. Thus my belief that if the financial crisis had been managed—if the Bagehot Rule had been followed, and if there had been authorities to lend freely at a penalty rate on collateral that was good in normal times—and if 2008 had passed without a crash, then our proves would have been over. It was not the case that the economy in November 2008 "needed a recession" as John Cochrane liked to claim, "because people pounding nails in Nevada needed to find something else to do"...

  6. Adrian Wooldridge Is... the Vicar of Bray!: Hoisted from the Archives: "The Illustrious House of Hannover,/And Protestant succession,/To these I lustily will swear,/Whilst they can keep possession:/For in my Faith, and Loyalty,/I never once will faulter,/But George, my lawful king shall be,/Except the Times shou'd alter"...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (January 26, 2019)

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  1. U.S. Recession No Longer Improbable: No Longer Fresh at Project Syndicate: For the first time in nine years, Americans and investors in America need to be prepared for not a probable but rather a not improbable economic downturn—and for the likelihood that should such a downturn come, it will be a deep and prolonged one...

  2. Note to Self: Time to taunt people on the other coast?...

  3. Commonwealth Club: Annual Economic Forecast: FRI, JAN 25 / 12:00 PM :: The Commonwealth Club :: 110 The Embarcadero :: Taube Family Auditorium :: San Francisco, 94105: With changes to taxes, trade wars with China and other countries, health care in flux, housing prices continuing to rise, continued governmental gridlock as well as international challenges to the United States, what does all of this mean for your business, your investments and the overall economy for 2019?...

  4. Note to Self: The Two Best Books I Read in 2018: John Carreyrou: Bad Blood.... Adam Tooze: Crashed...

  5. Note to Self: Write a Project Syndicate column about these, someday: "Anastas Mikoyan and Boris Ushumirskiy: The Book of Tasty and Healthy Food. Anya Von Bremzen: Mastering the Art of Soviet Cooking: A Memoir of Food and Longing...

  6. Hoisted from the Archives from 2005: Kevin Drum: The Wall Street Journal Editorial Page Is More of a Joke than Ever: "Reagan produced the slowest growth in... any decade since World War II. That's a real supply side triumph. Welcome to the Journal, Steve. You guys deserve each other...

  7. Hoisted from the Archives from 2010: If You Did Not Think UCLA Law Professor Steve Bainbridge Had Lost His Mind—or Perhaps Had No Mind to Lose—You Do Now...: I genuinely thought this was a joke when I first saw it. But, no, people who deal with him every week have persuaded me UCLA law professor Steve Bainbridge really does think Paris Hilton is the tenth worst American of all time...

  8. Hoisted from the Archives from 2016: Ben White: "Ben White: Morning Money: "Larry Kudlow and Steve Moore... [were] confident he and Kudlow could help nudge Trump away from his protectionist trade policies.... Moore noted that Trump has largely stopped talking about big tariffs on Chinese goods...

  9. Watch Me at the Commonwealth Club Annual Economic Forecast!

  10. Commonwealth Club Talking Points (January 25, 2019): Forecasting and Steve Moore Edition: The Shutdown: Let's review the bidding: Pelosi, Ryan, McCarthy, Schumer, McConnell, Trump reached a deal...

  11. Hoisted from the Archives: The Kansas Republican Governance Experiment. Or Is That "Governance 'Experiment'"? Or Is That "'Governance' Experiment"?: Nothing like this was seen before.... It is only under Brownback that it has been down, down, down, down. You can argue how much of it is hostility to immigrants and strangers. How much of it is the profoundly un-Christian cast of a "Christian" government, and how much of it is the collapse of public services. But it has been effective. My friend Dan Davies says that the best proof that there is a skill and art of management comes from the fact that nobody doubts that there is such a thing as gross mismanagement...

  12. Note to Self: The Heritage Foundation, the Club for Growth, and Stephen Moore Have No Principles Whatsoever. Why Do You Ask?: Now that Stephen Moore has signed up with Donald Trump, he is opposed to the Trans Pacific Partnership.... But... short months ago... Larry Kudlow, Arthur Laffer, and Stephen Moore (2015): "TPP Good For Both Sides Of The Pacific...

  13. The Economic Forecast: Commonwealth Club Non-Public Event Opening Statement: Some people think the Federal Reserve is about to back off. Some people think that this time really is different—that the bond market is spooking at shadows this time. Give each of these a 25% chance of being right, and you have to say that there is a 50% chance the U.S. will be in recession in a year and a half...

  14. Note to Self: How is it that Charlie Sykes, author of the appallingly-bad Profscam, is now one of the best-in-breed conservative? How did this happen?: The Bulwark—Conservatism Conserved...

  15. Talking Points and Snippets from Commonwealth Club January 25, 2019 Forecast Event: The Shutdown: Let's review the bidding: Pelosi, Ryan, McCarthy, Schumer, McConnell, Trump reached a deal. Deal passes Senate unanimously. Trump watches "Fox and Friends". Trump announces he won't sign the deal. Paul Ryan—desperate not to embarrass Trump more—won't let the House vote on the deal...

Continue reading "Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (January 26, 2019)" »


Be the Podcast You Want to See in the World!

We are going to need more monkeys Google Search

The very sharp Arindrajit Dube was, as one does, procrastinating on twitter:

Arindrajit Dube: Somehow I find the econ podcast space is mostly occupied by ideological right wingers, as opposed to people interested in an open minded, evidence informed economics. Who am I missing?

And my instantaneous reaction was: BE THE PODCAST YOU WANT TO SEE IN THE WORLD!

Brad DeLong: Let's start a podcast!

Arindrajit Dube: Wait Brad, is this a serious offer? :-)...

And the public chimed in:

Suresh Naidu: Do it!
Matthew Yglesias: You guys should do this for real
Robert Waldmann: You really do have to do the podcast (or block me). I will tweet complaints until you do it.
Aaron Sojourner: It would be incredibly valuable service.
Erik: Do it!
Dr. A. Duus Pape: I'd subscribe in a heartbeat.

Arindrajit Dube: God damn it Brad now Matt Y is on board and I am seriously screwed...

So it looks like we may be doing this for real—once a week, half-hour chunks, starting out as amateur hour only. First topic: thinking about what marginal tax rates on the rich should be.

What say you all?

Continue reading "Be the Podcast You Want to See in the World!" »


Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (January 15, 2019)

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  1. Global North research university problem: Speaker: "My major concern is: How can I be interested in fewer things?...

  2. Welcome to the 21st-century, in which my coffee machine says that it is “booting”...

  3. For the Weekend: 2018 In Weather

  4. Costs and Benefits of International Capital Mobility: Reply to Bhagwati: Hoisted from 20 Years Ago: Needless to say, time has left me a lot wiser: We need to design economies so that they can operate without disaster even when deregulatory clowns like those of the George W. Bush or the Donald J. Trump administrations are in control of the levers of policy at key moments...

  5. Comment of the Day: Charles Steindel: "British produce comes in before the Swiss spaghetti harvest?...

  6. Supply and Demand Shocks, and Seasonal Adjustment: Think that there are no such things as aggregate fluctuations generated by shifts in tastes and technologies? Think again. Look at the pattern of monthly payroll employment changes...


  1. A million dollars? As a tort settlement? What was going on?: Michelle Boorstein: C. John McCloskey: Opus Dei paid $977,000 to settle sexual misconduct claim against prominent Catholic pries

  2. That conservative parties' policies redistribute wealth and power upward while distracting their mass base by focusing them on internal or external enemies has long been the point of Toryism—since before try Gordon Riots, in fact. And now Tucker Carlson is surprised that there is gambling going on, and is just asking questions? Does he want us to take him seriously?: Eric Levitz: Why Tucker Carlson Plays a Critic of Capitalism On TV: "Melinda Cooper... explains: 'Writing at the end of the 1970s, the Chicago school neoliberal Gary Becker remarked that the “family in the Western world has been radically altered—some claim almost destroyed—by events of the last three decades.”… Becker believed that such dramatic changes in the structure of the family had more to do with the expansion of the welfare state in the post-war era than with feminism per se... a consequence rather than an instigator of these dynamics.... Becker’s abiding concern with the destructive effects of public spending on the family represents a key element of his microeconomics... that is consistently overlooked'...

  3. Farmers, miners, merchants, assembly-line workers—four key categories of workers that at various times in the past had to be supported and nurtured in order to create the wealth of a nation. Now none of those categories seem likely to embrace any substantial proportion of any future workforce. So how, then, we inquire, are we to understand the nature and causes of the wealth of nations in our future?: David desJardins: "It's too Late for Industrialization and Manufacturing to be a Path to Increasing Returns for Developing Countries.: "he information economy... is where the real increasing returns are today.... The key question for developing economies today is whether they can take advantage of the information economy.... China has moved pretty darn quickly up the ladder. Basically created a significant number of rather productive information workers in a single generation... #globalization #economicgrowth #riseodftherobots

  4. David Cho: The Labor Market Effects of Demand Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the Recovery Act: "How do firms respond to demand shocks?... Leveraging two firm-level datasets... linked employer-employee administrative records for a subset of U.S. firms from ADP, LLC with a comprehensive database of transactions from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)... I compare firms that received ARRA funds to a counterfactual sample of employers that were not directly connected to the Recovery Act.... The magnitudes of these changes suggest that the labor supply to an individual firm is relatively inelastic, even in a deep recession, and provide evidence of monopsonistic wage-setting in U.S. labor markets... #fiscalpolicy

  5. Noah Smith: Unions Did Great Things for the American Working Class: "Politically and economically, unions are sort of an odd duck. They aren’t part of the apparatus of the state, yet they depend crucially on state protections in order to wield their power. They’re stakeholders in corporations, but often have adversarial relationships with management. Historically, unions are a big reason that the working class won many of the protections and rights it now enjoys... #equitablegrowth #labormarket #politicaleconomy

  6. Paul Krugman (1998): America the Boastful

  7. Jagdish Bhagwati (1998): The Capital Myth

  8. Sendhil Mullainathan: Using Machine Learning to Understand Health Care Systems: "Machine learning... can also be used to improve our understanding of the health system itself... contribute to empirical science and better grounded policy. I describe results from two projects where the predictive approach proves particularly illuminating, both on 'wasted' spending: one on over-testing and the other on the high concentration of spending at the end of life. I will also describe methodological issues that arise that are relatively neglected in the machine learning literature, such as measurement error and the impact of unobserved variables...

  9. Lyz Lenz: You Should Care That Richard Spencer's Wife Says He Abused Her: "Despite the so-called alt-right’s attempt to be respectable, violence seems to follow it everywhere—even, allegedly, into Spencer’s own home...

  10. Seems to me @biscuit_ersed and everybody else needs their first game-theory lecture to be (1) defect-defect as dominant-strategy Nash equilibrium in prisoner's dilemma, (2) the unraveling equilibrium in finite related prisoner's dilemma, and (3) this first prisoner's dilemma ever played: http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/economists/prisoners_dilemma.html https://twitter.com/biscuit_ersed/status/1084812993509105671... #economics

  11. UCLA Gymnastics: "A 🔟 isn't enough for this floor routine by @katelyn_ohashi...

  12. Marie Le Conte: "One of my favourite things about being alive in 2019 is vaguely remembering that someone once sent you something you now need and having to look through the conversation archives of four different social media platforms to find it...

  13. Flood and Dresher devised a simple game where Nash equilibrium wasn't such a good outcome......

  14. Welcome to the 21st-century, in which my coffee machine says that it is “booting”...

  15. The very sharp Jeet Heer traces David Brooks's intgellecutal panic back to the John Birch Society; Jeet Heer: A Few Thoughts on "Cultural Marxism," Marcuse, John Wayne, the John Birch Society, and Anti-Semitism: "Goobers in the Trump administration are worried about 'Cultural Marxism' in the 'Deep State' opposing Trump.... 'Cultural Marxism' is a big boogeyman on the alt-right: it's the people who are supposedly responsible for creating PC, feminism, etc. The actual historical 'cultural Marxists' (or 'Western Marxists') were the Frankfurt School: Adorno, Benjamin, Marcuse etc... sought to supplant and update Marx's economic system with recognition of cultural forces...

  16. Todd C. Neumann, Price V. Fishback, and Shawn Kantor: The Dynamics of Relief Spending and the Private Urban Labor Market During the New Deal: "Positive shocks to relief during the First New Deal were followed by increased private employment and earnings, consistent with demand stimulus in that period...

  17. Delany Crampton: Veterans in the U.S. Labor Market Face Barriers to Success That Can and Should Be Addressed - Equitable Growth: "Anna Zogas of the University of Washington observes in her 2017 research that the U.S. military does an extremely effective job of training veterans to operate within the military and an extremely poor job of preparing them, especially young servicemembers, for post-military job...

  18. According to my Grandmother Florence Richardson Usher Lord, my Great-Great Uncle Abbott Payson Usher back in The Day used to teach—very boringly, she said—(1) Middle Ages, (2) Commercial Revolution, (3) Industrial Revolution, (4) Age of Modern Science, with growth accelerations in each of the four: Dietz Vollrath: Sustained growth and the increase in work hours: "Jane Humphries and Jacob Weisdorf... labor contract terms in England over several centuries... annual labor contracts starting seeing sustained growth in their value around 1650 or so, far sooner than the day wages indicated...

  19. Xavir Jaravel (2017): Product innovations and inflation in the U.S. retail sector have magnified inequality: "shifts in income distribution in the United States lead to product innovations that target high-income households, which increases purchasing-power inequality...

  20. Stephanie Victoria: "I'm a say this lil story then I'm gon' let'chall get back to tweeting...: Recently, I discovered a grocery story even bougie-er than Whole Foods in my new 'hood. My addition to the list of 'approved negroes after 6PM' recently went through so my neighbors have stopped staring at me & the resident coons only give disapproving looks on trash day instead of their usual 'don't start no trouble' slave talks in the hallway...

  21. David Rezza Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi: The Microeconomic Foundations of Aggregate Production Functions: "We provide a general methodology for analyzing...aggregate production functions by deriving their first- and second-order properties... provide non-parametric characterizations of the macro elasticities of substitution between factors and of the macro bias of technical change in terms of micro sufficient statistics. They allow us to generalize existing aggregation theorems and to derive new ones. We relate our results to the famous Cambridge- Cambridge controversy...

  22. Equitable Growth Steering Committee member Karen Dynan and company point out a big problem. Should we be trying to pay down our debt now in order to create "fiscal space"? Our should we take secular stagnation seriously, and not fear the possibilty of a sudden downward valuation of government debt that would take fiscal space away?: Karen Dynan, Jay Shambaugh, and Eduardo Porter: What Tools Does the U.S. Have to Combat the Next Recession?: "Today's lower equilibrium interest rates make it more likely that monetary policy would need to make use of unconventional tools to spur the economy. On the fiscal front, we have a much larger level of government debt relative to GDP than we did prior to the financial crisis. However, viewing this level of debt to GDP as a reason to restrain stimulus spending in case of a crisis could make the problem worse. Whether the government uses fiscal policy to stimulate the economy will depend more on political willingness, than on the actual limits on fiscal policy...

  23. This book is fun!: Jeff Erickson: Algorithms: "'Algorithm' does not derive... from the Greek roots arithmos (αριθοσ), meaning “number”, and algos (αλγοσ), meaning 'pain'. Rather, it is a corruption of the name of the 9th century Persianm athematician Muhammad ibn Musa al-Khwarizmi. Al-Khwarizmi is perhaps best known as the writer of the treatise Al-Kitab al-mukhtasar fihisab al-gabr wal-muqabala, from which the modern word algebra derives. In a different treatise, al-Khwarizmi described the modern decimal system for writing and manipulating numbers—in particular, the use of a small circle or sifr to represent a missing quantity—which had been developed in India several centuries earlier. The methods described in Al-Kitab, using either written figures or counting stones, became known in English as algorism or augrym, and its figures became known in English as ciphers...

  24. Abbott Payson Usher (1921): European Economic History: European Industry and Commerce in the Nineteenth Century. Half-course (second half-year). Tu., Th., Sat., at 9. Dr. Usher

  25. Irwin Collier presents my Great-Great-Uncle Abbott's 1922 exam: Abbott Payson Usher: Final Exam Questions for: European Industry and Commerce in the Nineteenth Century, 1922

  26. Nicholas Lardy: Xi Jinping’s Turn Away from the Market Puts Chinese Growth at Risk: "Credit is flowing to state-owned companies, not more productive private ones...


Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (January 10, 2019)

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  1. Note to Self: No, Apple! No Potty Mouth, Please!: Today I am disturbed that Apple voice recognition keeps hearing “slut“ when I say “slack“...

  2. Comment of the Day: BruceJ: "Honestly, when you look back at Brooks' history, where he 'just happens' to reference ideas out of the 'dark, dank silos of the far right' I see less laziness, than an ongoing subtle injection of those very ideas into so-called 'respectable' conservative commentary. If it IS all happenstance and laziness, Brooks is the luckiest damned blind squirrel in the universe...

  3. Why Economic History?: Good theory is in the end nothing but distilled and crystallized economic history. It could, after all, be nothing else. And piling more and more computer power on to the analysis of nonhistorical data could only be an intellectual optimum if the world was created ex nihilo the instant of the first date of your panel. So this is why we are here. Welcome to economic history...

  4. Comment of the Day: Private-sector entities cannot migrate labor and capital into the business of creating money, for money is liquid trust and can only be created by institutions that are trusted to be, well, good for the money. So the solution is not to move resources out of creating currently-produced goods and services but to move demand into buying currently-produced goods and services. And—as long as it is good for the money—the government's borrowing-and-spending or printing-and-dropping works just fine: JEC: Keynesian Economics vs. Regular Economics: "The funny thing here is that Barro imagines this to be a killer rhetorical question, when it is in fact a crucial and open research question...

  5. What Will Cause the Next US Recession?: Live at Project Syndicate: Needless to say, the particular nature and form of the next financial shock will be unanticipated. Investors, speculators, and financial institutions are generally hedged against the foreseeable shocks.... The death blow to the global economy in 2008-2009 came not from global imbalances or from the collapse of the mid-2000s housing bubble, but from the concentration of ownership of mortgage-backed securities...

  6. Comment of the Day: Cervantes: "I didn't know that British produce comes into season at the end of March, actually. You learn something every day...

  7. Betting That Nobody Will Check the References as an Intellectual Style: Monday Smackdown: Never mind that Himmelfarb cuts off her quote from Keynes just before Keynes writes that he approves of this Puritan fallacy—that he is not, as Himmelfarb claims, ridiculing it, but rather praising it...


  1. Paul Campos: Tucker Carlson Utters More Than Fourteen Words Evincing Skepticism About Finance Capitalism: Conservative Pundits Blanch In Pure Horror: "white ethno-nationalism, which is what both Carlson and Trump actually market to their respective, heavily overlapping audiences, is likely to become even more successful if it manages to morph into a kind of welfare=state herrenvolk democracy, in which 'real Americans' receive genuine protection from the depredations of capitalism, while a permanently disenfranchised underclass of guest workers and the like gets to live in the libertarian utopia envisioned by the Koch brothers...

  2. Ben Alpers: A Far-Right Anti-Semitic Conspiracy Theory Becomes a Mainstream Irritable Gesture: "At the heart of this largely rote piece of Brooksian pablum is a claim that deserves a closer look. 'The younger militants', writes Brooks, 'tend to have been influenced by the cultural Marxism that is now the lingua franca in the elite academy'. This is interesting both for what Brooks appears to be trying to say and, more immediately, how he has decided to say it... #orangehairedbaboons #publicsphere

  3. Alexander Zubatov: "I think YOU'RE misusing Blackford.... Remember, the whole point of my Tablet article was to respond to Sam Moyn's utterly misleading NYT article claiming cultural Marxism simply doesn't exist and is no more than anti-Semitic right-wing phantasmagoria...

  4. Ben Alper: Fun With Primary Sources: The Free Congress Foundation's "History of Political Correctness": "The notion that the Frankfurt School was responsible for creating 'Political Correctness', 'Cultural Marxism', and a related plot against Western civilization itself emerged from the circle around Lyndon LaRouche from the 1970s (when LaRouche’s attacks on the Frankfurt Institute apparently began) through the early 1990s...

  5. Dave Niewertr: Norway Terrorist Breivik Was An Ardent Subscriber To Theories Of 'Cultural Marxism': "The picture that's emerging is of an ordinary right-wing man stoked into anger by theories about "Cultural Marxism" that originated on the anti-Semitic far right but have in recent years been spreading into more mainstream venues, promoted by the likes of Andrew Breitbart, among others...

  6. Ben Alpers: The Frankfurt School, Right-Wing Conspiracy Theories, and American Conservatism: "There are obviously a lot of threads that one might pull in this story, regarding, among other things, the relationship between mainstream conservatism and the violent radical right, the strong base of antisemitism that (often silently) underwrites a lot right-wing rhetoric, the deep anti-intellectual and anti-academic tendencies in these modes of thought, and the peculiar role that Lyndon LaRouche and his minions have played in encouraging conspiracy theories of all sorts (they are also an important source for left-wing conspiracy theories about Leo Strauss and the Straussians)...

  7. Samuel Moyn: The Alt-Right’s Favorite Meme Is 100 Years Old: "‘Cultural Marxism’ might sound postmodern but it’s got a long, toxic history...

  8. Russell Blackford: Cultural Marxism and our current culture wars: Part 1: "In everyday contexts, those of us who do not accept the narrative of a grand, semi-conspiratorial movement aimed at producing moral degeneracy should probably avoid using the term 'cultural Marxism'. Unfortunate cultural tendencies, including those that manifest a left-wing style of authoritarianism, can usually be labelled in less confusing, more effective, more precise ways. By all means, let’s develop useful terminology to express whatever concerns we have about tendencies on the Left, but 'cultural Marxism' carries too much baggage...

  9. Jana Winter and Elias Groll: Here’s the Memo That Blew Up the NSC: "Fired White House staffer [Rich Higgins] argued 'deep state' attacked Trump administration because the president represents a threat to cultural Marxist memes, globalists, and bankers...

  10. Jeet Heer: Let's Talk about Anti-Semitic Ideology: "Bowers... belonged to the far right faction that sees Trump as... claim[ing] to stand for white America but actually works for 'the Jews'.... The idea that George Soros (symbol for many on right of Jewish conspiracy) is behind Caravan isn't confined to Nazis.... Congressman Matt Gaetz... popular Trumpist cartoonist Ben Garrison... House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy.... The Soros stuff is just one of many manifestations of the the grand anti-Semitic trope.... The Soros of right-wing mythology (globalist intent on destroy cohesive nations) fit the long history of blaming internal discord on outside agitators as well as the Dolchstoßlegende. The nationalist needs a cosmopolitan nemesis...

  11. Zack Beauchamp: A Trump Voter Hurt by the Shutdown’s Incredibly Revealing Quote: "Think about that line for a second. Roll it over in your head. In essence, Minton is declaring that one aim of the Trump administration is to hurt people—the right people. Making America great again, in her mind, involves inflicting pain. This is not an accident. Trump’s political victory and continuing appeal depend on a brand of politics that marginalizes and targets groups disliked by his supporters. Trump supporters don’t so much love the Republican party as they hate Democrats...

  12. Jeet Heer: Let's Talk about Anti-Semitic Ideology: "The idea that George Soros (symbol for many on right of Jewish conspiracy) is behind Caravan isn't confined to Nazis. Here's Congressman Matt Gaetz. Here is popular Trumpist cartoonist Ben Garrison—again, someone with an audience outside the Nazi right but circulating idea that Soros is working to destroy America. House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy...

  13. Tamara Strauss: Blum Center News Digest, Jan. 7: "A selection of articles and reports pulled from the last two/three weeks...

  14. Raj Kumar: Facing Harsh Realities, the Global Development Community Confronts Another Fraught Year: "The outlines of an established global politics on aid are beginning to come into focus, and it’s a fraught landscape. Aid is now openly and directly discussed as a tool to stem migration, achieve foreign policy objectives, and derive domestic economic benefits, particularly for major donors including the U.S., China, Germany, and the U.K...

  15. Paul Krugman: The Economics of Soaking the Rich: "Diminishing marginal utility is the common-sense notion that an extra dollar is worth a lot less in satisfaction to people with very high incomes than to those with low incomes. Give a family with an annual income of $20,000 an extra $1,000 and it will make a big difference to their lives. Give a guy who makes $1 million an extra thousand and he’ll barely notice it. What this implies for economic policy is that we shouldn’t care what a policy does to the incomes of the very rich. A policy that makes the rich a bit poorer will affect only a handful of people, and will barely affect their life satisfaction, since they will still be able to buy whatever they want... #equitablegrowth #fiscalpolicy

  16. Steve Richards: Theresa May’s Survival Has Become Dependent on Denying Political Reality: "After the long cabinet meeting on the Brexit deal, the prime minister declared outside Number 10 that ministers had backed her plans. The next day the Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, resigned. Mrs May appointed a successor as if the words she had uttered the night before had never been spoken.... She has, in the intervening weeks, insisted that there is space for a significant negotiation with the EU before the approaching Commons’ vote on her deal, expected within the next fortnight. The EU has made clear there is no room for such revision. The disconnect between the prime minister’s public words and what is happening around her is stark. Other prime ministers sought words to make sense of chaotic situations. Alternatively, they tried to change the situation. But Mrs May does neither. She presses on. But her indifference to words and persuasion, these essential arts of leadership, is a fatal flaw...

  17. Patrick Kline, Neviana Petkova, Heidi Williams, and Owen Zidar: Who Profits from Patents? Rent-Sharing at Innovative Firms: "An initial allowance of an ex-ante valuable patent generates substantial increases in firm productivity and worker compensation. By contrast, initial allowances of lower ex-ante value patents yield no detectable effects on firm outcomes.... On average, workers capture roughly 30 cents of every dollar of patent-induced surplus in higher earnings... concentrated among men and workers in the top half of the earnings distribution, and are paired with corresponding improvements in worker retention among these groups. We interpret these earnings responses as reflecting the capture of economic rents by senior workers, who are most costly for innovative firms to replace...

  18. David Weil (2014): The Fissured Workplace: "Large corporations have shed their role as direct employers of the people responsible for their products, in favor of outsourcing work to small companies that compete fiercely with one another...

  19. Jag Bhalla: Judea Pearl's 'The Book of Why' Shakes Up Correlation vs. Causality

  20. Uncle Judea, Melanin, Genetics, and Educational Attainment...: Am I profoundly stupid, or is Uncle Judea's framework of causal confounders—colliders—mediators a huge advance, perhaps not in helping those of you who think carefully do non-stupid statistics, but in helping those of us who do not think carefully do non-stupid statistics, and in providing a royal road to teaching people how to do not-stupid statistics...

  21. This point is absolutely cognitive science-statistics-philosophy of probability gold!: Judea Pearl, Madelyn Glymour, and Nicholas P. Jewell (2016): Causal Inference in Statistics: A Primer (New York: John Wiley & Sons: 978119186847): "Inquisitive students may wonder why it is that dependencies associated with conditioning on a collider are so surprising to most people—as in, for example, the Monty Hall example. The reason is that humans tend to associate dependence with causation...

  22. Lisa R. Goldberg: Review of The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect: "The graphical approach to causal inference that Pearl favors has been influential, but it is not the only approach.... The Neyman (or Neyman–Rubin) potential outcomes model... James Heckman, whose concept of 'fixing' resembles, superficially at least, the do operator that Pearl uses. Those who enjoy scholarly disputes may look to Andrew Gelman’s blog... or to the tributes written by Pearl and Heckman to the reclusive Nobel Laureate, Trygve Haavelmo, who pioneered causal inference in economics in 1940...

  23. Ride | Austin: Frequently Asked Question: "The previous rideshare companies spent millions of dollars then chose to abandon the 'factory' (drivers & riders) they built. We believed with the backing of the community-RideAustin could quickly harness this infrastructure-build the right solution and fill the void and provide a great, safe service.... The tech community contributed technology to power the app that costs millions to develop-but it also took over $7 million in cash donations and significant in-kind services donations to make RideAustin what it is today...

  24. Counterfactuals! There is currently a mishegas at Andrew Gelman's place about Pearl and Mackenzie's Book of Why, which has a reference to this and has led me to the conclusion that I really need to find time to work my way through this entire book: Cosma Shalizi: Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View: "The distributions we observe in the world are the outcome of complicated stochastic processes. The mechanisms which set the value of one variable inter-lock with those which set other variables. When we make a probabilistic prediction by conditioning—whether we predict􏰁 E[Y|X=x] or Pr (Y|X=x) or something more complicated—we are just filtering the output of those mechanisms, picking out the cases where they happen to have set X to the value x, and looking at what goes along with that. When we make a causal prediction, we want to know what would happen if the usual mechanisms controlling X were suspended and it was set to x. How would this change propagate to the other variables? What distribution would result for Y? This is often, perhaps even usually, what people really want to know from a data analysis, and they settle for statistical prediction either because they think it is causal prediction, or for lack of a better alternative... #reasoning

  25. Yes, lots of conservative males feel unmanned because women can now get jobs and contraceptives and so are not (a) desperate to find a man to support them while (b) terrified of getting pregnant. The best answer would be teaching young males that while their grandfathers and male their fathers could be real dicks without it ruining their lives, that is no longer tru: Josh Barro: "I think a big problem with the 'economic and social change undermined marriage and family for the working class' frame is that a main way it did this is by making women less dependent on men...

  26. Jane Coaston: Tucker Carlson Has Sparked The Most Interesting Debate In Conservative Politics: "Carlson... greed that his monologue was reminiscent of Warren, referencing her 2003 book The Two-Income Trap: Why Middle-Class Parents Are Growing Broke.... Carlson wanted to be clear: He’s just asking questions.... In this telling, white working-class Americans who once relied on a manufacturing economy that doesn’t look the way it did in 1955 are the unwilling pawns of elites. It’s not their fault that, in Carlson’s view, marriage is inaccessible to them.... Someone, or something, did this to them.... Carlson is advancing a form of victim-politics populism that takes a series of tectonic cultural changes—civil rights, women’s rights, a technological revolution as significant as the industrial revolution, the mass-scale loss of religious faith, the sexual revolution, etc.—and turns the negative or challenging aspects of those changes into an angry tale of what they are doing to you. And that was my biggest question about Carlson’s monologue, and the flurry of responses to it, and support for it: When other groups (say, black Americans) have pointed to systemic inequities within the economic system that have resulted in poverty and family dysfunction, the response from many on the right has been, shall we say, less than enthusiastic. Yet white working-class poverty receives, from Carlson and others, far more sympathy...


Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (January 4, 2019)

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  1. What Is Going on This Morning Over at "National Review"? Is It Worth Reading? No.: I read 10 articles, and graded each ops 0-to-10 scale. Total score (out of 100); -45. Beam me up, Scotty. There is no intelligent life there at all...

  1. Lindsay Ellis: Death of the Author #movies

  2. Andrew Gaudion: Ranking Every Training Montage in the ‘Rocky’ Franchise

  3. Bruce Springsteen: Tougher Than the Rest #music

  4. Bruce Springsteen: Brilliant Disguise #music

  5. I now think the right dates for the "long" 20th Century are: May 10, 1869-November 8, 2016: Frederick Studemann: The New Year Could Mark the Beginning of a New(ish) Century: "There are those, such as the economic historian Brad DeLong, who wonder whether Hobsbawn may have short-changed the 20th century. Can a case can be made, they ask, for the 20th century to run from 1870, when the wider impact of the industrial revolution became clear, political economics became central and liberal democracy took hold, to just after the global financial crisis?...

  6. Noah Smith: China's Economic Growth at Risk From Reversing Reforms - Bloomberg: "There already are some signs that the country is making mistakes that will hobble economic growth.... By many measures, China is the world’s largest economy. This means a number of benefits will now flow—and indeed are already flowing—to China that used to go to the U.S. and Europe. Chief among these is agglomeration.... But... it might easily make mistakes that would prevent the country from leveraging that size for maximum economic benefit. Chief among these self-inflicted wounds would be closing the country to foreign investment, extending state control of the economy and adopting an adversarial relationship with neighboring nations. Ominously, the country seems to doing all of these now, to one extent on another... #economicgrowth

  7. Richa Gupta and Umang Aggarwal: Is there a “Late Converger Stall” in Economic Development? Can India Escape it?: "A major driver of these good times is 'economic convergence', whereby poorer countries have grown faster than richer countries and closed the gap in standards of living. The convergence process has been broadening and accelerating for the last 20-30 years.... [But] the possibility of... a 'Late Converger Stall'... #economicgrowth #economichistory #globalization

  8. Liz Bruenig: Falwell’s entire view of Christianity and politics... I suspect... stems from a mistaken reading of Augustine, the fourth-century African saint who wrote 'The City of God'... #moralphilosophy

  9. Francis Crick (1967): To James Watson

  10. Guinness: noitulovE

  11. Kate Riga: GOP Senator Calls For End Of Shutdown Without Deal On Trump’s Border Wall: "Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO).... 'I think we should pass a continuing resolution to get the government back open. The Senate has done it last Congress, we should do it again today', Gardner said.... Gardner is up for reelection in 2020 in a purple state...

  12. Yes, it was a mistake for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates last month: Chris Matthews: Dow Tumbles 650 points as Apple News, Manufacturing Data Spark Fears of Global Slowdown: ".S. stock indexes closed sharply lower Thursday, after a survey of American manufacturers showed the sector growing at its slowest pace in two years, and after a sales forecast cut by Apple Inc AAPL, -9.96% intensified fears of a slowing Chinese economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.83% fell 661.58 points, or 2.8%, to 22,684.66, the S&P 500 index SPX, -2.48% , shed 62.18 points, or 2.5%, to 2,447.87, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -3.04% tumbled 202.43 points, or 3%, to 6,463.50...

  13. Maybe now that Trump has embraced lowering corporate profits as a policy goal, Mike Pence will be willing to invoke Amendment 25: Josh Barro: China Is Losing Trump’s Trade War—and So Are We: "This is the insanity of the president’s trade war policy: it’s negative-sum.... Trump’s own economic adviser is going on television and saying his policy is going to reduce corporate profits. I wrote a couple of weeks ago about the strange disconnect between financial markets and economic data.... Well, as Bloomberg put it in a headline this morning, 'Bad Stuff the Stock Market Worried About Is Starting to Happen'.... The economy is weakening, and market participants know it, but the weakened performance has not yet shown up in lagging economic data...


REMIND YOURSELF: Representation

Keep this near the top of working memory...

  • 180.8 million people are represented by the 49 senators who caucus with the Democrats.
  • 141.7 million people are represented by the 52 51 senators who caucus with the Republicans.
  • 65.9 million people voted for Hillary Rodham Clinton and Tim Kaine to be their president and vice president
  • 63.0 million people voted for Donald Trump and Mike Pence to be their president and vice president.

Continue reading "REMIND YOURSELF: Representation" »


Lawrence Wilkerson: Cheney wanted new cold war with China: "Cheney used various bureaucratic techniques to deal with each of these national security issues. He lost on China. He won on Iraq. He won on Afghanistan. He won on Iran, but he didn’t win on Iran by getting a presidential decision; he won on Iran by exploiting the dysfunctionality of Condi Rice, the national security adviser...

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Ashlie Jensen (2013): Mendoza is Dismissed from Court: "In 1583 Queen Elizabeth I hosted her last Spanish Ambassador.... It became known to Elizabeth's intelligence network that Bernardino de Mendoza was conspiring.... He was ordered to leave England... [because] his involvement in the Throckmorton Plot [had] 'disturbed the realm of England'. Directly before his departure, Mendoza ordered the English officials seeing him off to go and, 'tell your mistress that Bernardino de Mendoza was born not to disturb kingdoms, but to conquer them'...

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A Baker's Dozen of Fairly-Recent Links

stacks and stacks of books

  1. Michael Bröning: Germany’s Socialism of Fools: "By adopting a program based on "identity and solidarity," Germany's far-right AfD is harking back to classic National Socialism. It is likely to be a winning formula in this month's state elections in Bavaria and Hesse...
  2. Anjana Ahuja: Climate catastrophe warnings were greeted with global silence: "hortsighted folly of ignoring the IPCC will lead to drastic future policies...
  3. Brad W. Setser: Russia, China, and (the Absence of) Global Funding of the U.S. Fiscal Deficit…
  4. Robert Wilde: The Chevauchée: Organised Medieval Murder 5, N.S. Gill: Rome 1st Century B.C. Chronology
  5. Wikipedia: Legio X Equestris
  6. Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer: A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility
  7. Timur Kuran and Dani Rodrik: The Economic Costs of Erdoğan : "For more than a decade, financial markets gave Recep Tayyip Erdoğan the benefit of the doubt and supplied the Turkish economy with easy credit. Such debt-fueled growth almost always ends badly, and now it has...
  8. Wikipedia: Peace of Westphalia
  9. William Shakespeare: The Second part of King Henry the Fourth
  10. Daniel W. Drezner (20070: The New New World Order
  11. (2004): Eric Alterman Told Us So
  12. Matthew Buckley: @physicsmatt: "Are we going to do anything about our allies murding a journalist? No, because a) Prince Jared still needs a loan, and b) murdering journalists is a GOP party plank now. All the US will do is ask the Saudis for how-to tips...

"You don’t get to claim that you’re not attacking the university when your first few sentences read like that. It suggests a lack of clarity in the argument—a sentence I would have written if I had been asked to peer-review this essay". Dan Drezner mocks the anti-humanities industry, and, boy, is it mockable: Daniel Drezner: A Paper That Would Never Have Gotten Past Peer Review Criticizes the Academy. Film at 11: "Last year scholars James A. Lindsay and Peter Boghossian proudly declared that they had hoodwinked a peer-reviewed journal into publishing nonsense.... That... was riddled with problems, not the least of which was that the journal they had hacked was a pay-for-play scam...

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Nathaniel Rakich: A Big Blue Wave Could Overwhelm The GOP’s Advantage In The House: "A switch is thrown at D+8 that causes actual Democratic seat gain to go from behind their popular-vote gain pace to well ahead of it. So what happens at D+8? Republicans’ structural advantage in how districts are drawn (gerrymandering, as well as the phenomenon of self-sorting, whereby Democrats tend to cluster in cities, which are already heavily Democratic) begins to erode. That advantage normally allows Republicans to keep control of the House while still losing the popular vote by a modest margin. But if Republicans lose the popular vote by too much, their firewall might break all at once, and Democratic gains could multiply...

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Oh, f---! It was only a bunch of bottles of wine, and some undesired asset liquidations. It was a pretty big deal in terms of social power, but not of human well-being, or lives. It was ultimately a very funny story—until now; Laura Noonan: Assistant Accused of Stealing Wine from Goldman Sachs CEO Jumps to Death: "Nicolas de Meyer was due to plead guilty to 1.2m fine wine theft from David Solomon.... The personal assistant accused of stealing... from Goldman Sachs’ chief executive David Solomon has jumped to his death from a 33rd floor Manhattan hotel instead of appearing in court to plead guilty to the charges...

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Noah Smith baits earnest ideologues on Twitter: Ryan Hauntedhouse: @ryandhous_: "Dismantling capitalism =! becoming the USSR."

...Noah Smith: @Noahpinion: Maybe not, but what the heck DOES it mean??

Ryan Hauntedhouse 🎃👻💀 on Twitter Dismantling capitalism becoming the USSR

Ryan Hauntedhouse: @ryandhous_: It means that an economy based on creating value for shareholders based primarily on profit as a metric will not be able to solve the oncoming catastrophe of climate change.

...Noah Smith: @Noahpinion: No, you just said what it doesn't mean. What does it mean?...

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Newly-arrived at Equitable Growth, Will McGrew retweets Matthew Yglesias quoting Ryan Cooper: Will McGrew: Matthew Yglesias: "Ryan Cooper: 'There was no skills gap, nor an innovation shortage, nor an explosion of stay-at-home dads. There was a collapse in aggregate demand that was left to rot, while a lot of people who should have known better made things worse...'

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Homeowner bankruptcy and foreclosure are liquidity events, not solvency events: Peter Ganong and Pascal Noel: Liquidity vs. wealth in household debt obligations: Evidence from housing policy in the Great Recession: "We use variation in mortgage modifications to disentangle the impact of reducing long-term obligations with no change in short-term payments ('wealth'), and reducing short-term payments with approximately no change in long-term obligations ('liquidity')...

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A Baker's Dozen of Fairly-Recent Links

stacks and stacks of books

  1. Marshall Berman: All That's Solid Melts into Air http://delong.typepad.com/files/berman_marshall_all_that_is_solid_melts_into_air_the_experience_of_modernity.pdf
  2. Karen S. Freeman: How to View Web Pages on Apple Watch in Watchos 5: "Yes, you can access web pages on your Apple Watch now...
  3. Wikipedia: Darien scheme
  4. Caroline M. Yoachim: Carnival Nine: #sciencefiction
  5. James Nicoll: The Company of Strangers: "The Ginger Star—Leigh Brackett, Skaith, book 1... #sciencefiction
  6. Steven Pulvirent: A Week On The Wrist: Apple Watch Series 4: "The future of the Apple Watch is coming into focus–and I like what I'm starting to see...
  7. William Poundstone: Prisoner's Dilemma https://books.google.com/books?isbn=0307763781 #books
  8. Merrill M. Flood: Experimental Games
  9. Paul Romer (1989): Endogenous Technological Change: "Growth in this model is driven by technological change that arises from intentional investment decisions made by profit maximizing agents. The distinguishing feature of the technology as an input is that it is neither a conventional good nor a public good; it is a nonrival, partially excludable good...
  10. Paul Romer (2015): Economic Growth: "Every generation has perceived the limits to growth that finite resources and undesirable side effects would pose if no new recipes or ideas were discovered. And every generation has underestimated the potential for finding new recipes and ideas...
  11. William D. Nordhaus (1996): Do Real-Output and Real-Wage Measures Capture Reality? The History of Lighting Suggests Not: "During periods of major technological change, the construction of accurate price indexes that capture the impact of new technologies on living standards is beyond the practical capability of official statistical agencies. The essential difficulty arises for the obvious but usually overlooked reason that most of the goods we consume today were not produced a century ago...
  12. William D. Nordhaus (2007): A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change: "How much and how fast should we react to the threat of global warming? The Stern Review argues that the damages from climate change are large, and that nations should undertake sharp and immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions...
  13. Nick Stern et al.: The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change

#shouldread

Just in time for midterm exams: M. Aurelius Antoninus: :M. Cornelius Fronto: "To my teacher: I received two letters from you at the same time. In one of them, you were criticizing me and you were showing that I wrote a sentence rashly; in the second, however, you were trying to approve my work with praise. Still, I swear by my mother and by my health that I got more joy from the first letter...

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Note to Self: Prisoners' Dilemma Tweets...

https://twitter.com/delong/status/1048597577229373440
https://twitter.com/XLProfessor/status/1048599003821047809
https://twitter.com/delong/status/1048609562217996288
https://twitter.com/JonWalkerDC/status/1048610059926700032
https://twitter.com/delong/status/1048610236418772993
https://twitter.com/akcayerol/status/1048609883036299264
https://twitter.com/delong/status/1048610846014763008
https://twitter.com/laseptiemewilay/status/1048610348583010305
https://twitter.com/delong/status/1048610963497209856
https://twitter.com/delong/status/1048611584552009728
https://twitter.com/delong/status/1048612380895105024
https://twitter.com/thorgamma/status/1048614023552552966
https://twitter.com/delong/status/1048614093270081536
https://twitter.com/oliverbeige/status/1048613269487980545
https://twitter.com/delong/status/1048614520242020352
https://twitter.com/delong/status/1048614537962770432
https://twitter.com/MarkARKleiman/status/1048614352067149825
https://twitter.com/MarkARKleiman/status/1048614353640022017
https://twitter.com/delong/status/1048615646743785472
https://twitter.com/delong/status/1048616583784873984
https://twitter.com/delong/status/1048624515289436162
https://twitter.com/MarkARKleiman/status/1048615957189611520
https://twitter.com/dannyschwab/status/1048629320393084929
https://twitter.com/MarkARKleiman/status/1048630608476426241
https://twitter.com/dannyschwab/status/1048632117171838976

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A Baker's Dozen of Fairly Recent Links

stacks and stacks of books

  1. Wolfenoot: "Eat roast meat (because wolves eat meat) and cake decorated like a full moon. A holiday to the spirit of wolves that celebrates people who are kind to dogs? I can 100% get behind this. So we will be celebrating Wolfenoot. It’s on the 23rd November.... If you’re posting publicly about it, use #wolfenoot...
  2. Emma Christensen: Recipe: Chili-Rubbed Ribeye Steak with Maple-Bourbon Butter | Kitchn: "For the steaks: 1 tablespoon cacao nibs 1 tablespoon chili powder 2 teaspoons brown sugar 1 teaspoon salt 1/2 teaspoon smoked paprika (optional) Black pepper 2 (1-pound) boneless ribeye steaks. For the maple-bourbon butter: 1 tablespoon bourbon 1 teaspoon maple syrup 1/2 stick (4 tablespoons) butter, very soft...
  3. John Bell: +Against Measurement_
  4. Daniel Swain: Substantial early-season rainfall in California to dampen explosive wildfire conditions: "Significant rainfall now appears likely from about the SF Bay Area south to Los Angeles County, with at least some precipitation pretty much statewide...
  5. John Williams: 'Normal' Monetary Policy in Words and Deeds: "We could return to a system... in which the supply of reserves... was kept relatively scarce, and the interest rate was set by... open market operations.  Alternatively, we could continue with the system that we’ve been using since the crisis, in which bank reserves are abundant and the federal funds rate target is achieved through adjustments to administered rates...
  6. Doug Jones: Logarithmic History: "The history of the universe—from the Big Bang to the end of the year—day by day...
  7. Great China Restaurant
  8. Zach Weinersmith: Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal: "The Program...
  9. Wikipedia: Hexapodia Is the Key Insight!
  10. Noah Smith: Why Millennials Are Sour on the Economy: "Lack of mobility, stagnant incomes and thwarted expectations is a painful mix...
  11. Noah Smith: How to Fill the Gaps in the U.S. Economy: "Many of these advances have come through a single agency—the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA (also known as ARPA at some points in its history)...
  12. Jason Snell: Why Are Apple Watch Faces Such a Mess?: "a lot of Apple Watch users have been surprised that they can’t add older complications to those faces. Apps need to be updated to explicitly support the new complication style, which was only introduced to developers on the day the Apple Watch Series 4 was announced...
  13. Moses Abramovitz (1986): Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind

Continue reading "A Baker's Dozen of Fairly Recent Links" »


The search for "robust determinants" has always seemed to me to be wrong-headed. We should be searching for effective policies. And which determinants are "robust" will depend on what other determinants are in the mix. And an effective policy is likely to shift the values of more than one "determinant": Dani Rodrik: "Is 'export sophistication' (as in Hausmann, Hwang, and Rodrik 2007) the only robust determinant of economic growth? Robust, that is, to correcting for endogenity and OVB as best as possible? This new paper from the IMF says yes https://t.co/C3DkRzqr8d...

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Lars Svensson: Can Monetary Policy Still Deliver? A Natural Experiment: "Riksbank policy-rate hikes 2010-2011, from 0.25% to 2%. What happens to inflation and unemployment when the central bank (for no good reason) raise the policy rate by 175 bp?... Monetary policy works like clockwork in Sweden. Neo-Fisherian view rejected. What contributes to powerful monetary policy in Sweden? 1. Strong exchange-rate channel 2. Strong household cash-flow channel...

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